Kemana hala tuju interest rate?

Banyak news yang keluar untuk Usd, Gbp & Euro lebih tertumpu kepada untuk mengawal inflation dari semakin meningkat. Uncle Ben, Uncle King & Uncle Trichet sudah tidak bimbangkan sangat pada "economy growth" at the moment.

Aku sememangnya menantikan permulaan cycle untuk kenaikan interest rate untuk Usd, Gbp & Euro. Ini kerana apabila CB mulakan aktiviti untuk menaikkan interest rate - maka secara tidak langsung aku tahu bahawa cycle untuk rate cut dah terhenti; dalam erti kata lain aku boleh anggap bahawa interest rate direction untuk that currency adalah up untuk 3-5 bulan mendatang atau sehingga mereka mula bimbangkan tentang "economy growth" dan memulakan rate cut cycle semula...

Sekiranya benar bahawa Usd, Gbp dan Euro mahu menaikkan interest rate masing-masing ; ini akan promote carry trade aktiviti...

Apapun, secara technicalnya; Kalau kita usha weekly chart on GJ, nampak very nice inverted head and shoulder. Begitu juga kalau kita usha daily chart on GJ... Nampak bull masih incharge. Dan berdasarkan simple calculation dari inverted head and shoulder on weekly chart; there are still lots of room for GJ to move up..

Esok aku akan usha weekly chart; jam 8.00 am waktu malaysia - untuk clue samada price akan continue up ataupun sebaliknya.

wait n see...

News on Interest Rate & Inflation

USD " ... On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will be making a monetary policy announcement. After cutting interest rates by 325bp since August, the Fed is expected to pause. With the pause should come hawkish comments that pave the way for an interest rate hike before the end of the year. The debate in the markets right now is whether a rate hike will come before or after the US Presidential elections in November. Currently, Fed fund futures are pricing in a strong likelihood of a September rate hike and the tone of the FOMC statement should shed more light on the Fed’s urgency to contain inflation. Hawkish comments will be positive for the US dollar while neutral comments will be very dollar negative.

GBP " .. The British pound has had a great week due to broad dollar weakness and strong economic data. The UK retail sales report has raised a lot of questions as to how much longer the Bank of England can remain on hold. Earlier this week, Bank of England Governor King warned that inflation could hit 4 percent this year, which is 2 full percentage points higher than their inflation target. The only thing holding the BoE back from raising interest rates now is growth, but if growth is stabilizing, then a rate hike may be just around the corner. Unfortunately there isn’t a lot of data to help the British pound next week. The calendar is relatively light except for a few reports on house prices, the final GDP numbers for the first quarter and current account. "..

EURO " ... The Euro strengthened against the US dollar as producer prices in Germany grow by the fastest pace in nearly 2 years. It is actually a bit surprising that the Euro still responds to stronger inflationary pressures which is nearly a given considering that food and energy prices continue to climb. ECB member Bini Smagh warned this morning that rates will have to increase because if “inflation is left to creep up, the cost of bringing it down later will be even higher.” The focus next week for the Eurozone will be how inflation has impacted growth. The week starts off with the German IFO report, and the service and manufacturing PMI numbers. Then on Friday, we are expecting the retail PMI numbers and current account. This past week, German investor confidence dropped to a 15 year low. The recent drop in consumer spending as well as the threat of an interest rate hike next month should also weigh on business confidence.

by Kathy Lien (DailyFx)