Impact of U.S Interest Rate Hike

Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade

The US central bank has raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and pledged a gradual pace of increases
This marks the end to the near-zero borrowing costs that have prevailed since the US was struck by the worst financial crash in modern times.

How fast will rates rise?

There are different ways to guess. One of these is by looking at the Fed Fund futures markets, where investors essentially bet on what level the interest rate will be in upcoming months.

What do economists think?

The Financial Times polled 51 top economists on how fast they think Janet Yellen would raise rates in the next two years. The projection is for the Fed to lift rates by 75 basis points in 2016 and a further 100 in 2017.

What is at stake when the Fed raises rates?

A lot. The effects of a Fed rate rise is transmitted not just through to banks and businesses in the US, but also has an impacct on the global economy.

Why is the Fed raising interest rates now?

America has seen its longest private sector hiring spurt on record, and unemployment has halved since its peak. The Fed thinks the hot jobs market could spur a pickup in inflation and wages. Given it is tasked with keeping inflation low, it is considering raising the cost of borrowing to keep the economy on an even keel.

Why have rates in the US been held so low for so long?

The US was hit by the crash in its housing market and banking sector between 2007-09. The Fed felt it needed to pull out all of the stops to prevent the economy from collapsing into a new Great Depression. One way of keeping things afloat was by cutting the cost of borrowing to rock-bottom levels.

How does a rise in central bank interest rates get transmitted to the wider economy?

Adjusting the federal funds rate - the rate banks charge each other for short-term loans - affects other short term rates paid by firms and households. These movements also have knock-on effects on long-term rates, including mortgages and corporate bonds. Changes in long-term rates will have an influence on asset prices, including the equity market. During the crisis the Fed also purchased longer-term mortgage backed securities and Treasury bonds to lower the level of long-term rates.

How fast are rates likely to rise?

Not fast at all - if the Fed is to be believed. One of the mantras adopted by Chair Janet Yellen this year has been that rate rises will be gradual. The pace of increases is expected to be less than half the tempo of the Fed’s last round of rate rises, which started in 2004. And the ultimate rate they stop at is likely to be very low too, at less than 4 per cent.

Are businesses ready for an increase in borrowing costs?

Many corporations have taken advantage of the low rate environment to borrow money via the bond markets. Most companies say they are relaxed about the impact of a small rate hike, believing the market has already priced their bonds or such an event.

What will a rate rise mean for my personal finances?

An upward move in short-term interest rates will be positive for savers who have been missing out on interest on their deposits. But the change could also be transmitted to a range of other interest rates, including car loans, credit cards and mortgages, which would make them more costly.

 

Are US consumers in general prepared for rates to rise?

The burden of household debt has fallen since the crisis, reaching 114 per cent of net disposable income last year, according to OECD statistics, suggesting consumers are better prepared for higher borrowing costs. In addition, a quarter-point hike would still leave rates at historically low levels.

How are investors reacting to higher US interest rates?

Investors' immediate reaction to the first rate rise in nearly a decade was generally one of relief that it is finally happening. The end of the Fed’s “zero interest rate policy” has been anxiously anticipated by investors for more than a year, but policymakers have worked hard to stress that the coming monetary tightening cycle will be exceptionally gentle, to avoid a repeat of the market “taper tantrum” that erupted when they announced the end of quantitative easing. From the intial market movements after the rate rise decision was announced, it seems they have succeeded.

How are currency traders positioning themselves?

Currency markets are fickle, but differences in interest rates tend to drive movements in the longer-run. For example, if a European investor can borrow cheaply in Berlin and buy a higher-yielding US bond, then all else being equal the dollar will rise versus the euro. As a result, the dollar started the year in rip-roaring fashion, with an index measuring the US currency against a basket of its peers rocketing to a 12-year high, as investors bet on the Fed tightening monetary policy and bond yield differences widened.

Since then it has continued to beat up emerging market currencies but the broad rally has fizzled out as the euro and the Japanese yen have regained their footing. However, many analysts and fund managers expect the greenback to continue to climb higher in the coming years, as the Fed raises interest rates further.

What investments are most sensitive to interest rate rises?

Almost every asset class on the planet exhibits some evidence of frothiness these days, but some seem more vulnerable to higher interest rates. Although stocks look expensive, higher interest rates indicates that economic growth is firm, and that is good for listed companies. Gold typically loses its shine when interest rates climb, as the metal doesn’t pay any interest like a bank account will, but has already been beaten up heavily recently. The bond market looks more exposed. Highly rated debt is trading with very low yields, which means they are vulnerable to even a modest rise in Fed interest rates, while bonds issued by companies rated “junk” could suffer if more expensive borrowing tips some weaker groups into bankruptcy.

Will the UK automatically follow the US in raising rates?

There is no automatic or formal link between US and UK interest rates but the widespread expectation is that the Bank of England will be the next central bank after the US to raise rates. The UK’s economic recovery is well on track, with solid growth and a strong labour market.

What are we expecting from UK interest rate rises?

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has stressed that while the next move in rates is likely to be upwards, the path of increases will be “limited and gradual”.
While refusing to be drawn on precise timing, Mr Carney said the decision of whether to start lifting rates was likely to come into “sharper relief” around the turn of the year. Analysts are not predicting the first rise until February at the earliest, with many pushing the timing back into the late spring.

Are all major central banks around the world thinking of raising interest rates?

No. The Bank of England is widely expected to follow the Fed and raise rates, most likely some time in the new year. But as the prolonged weakness in oil prices continues to keep inflation low, many central banks in the rich world are expected to loosen monetary policy further, for example expanding their programmes of quantitative easing. Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, paved the way for an extension of QE and the Bank of Japan may well decide to go the same way to bring inflation back to target. In China, the central bank may also cut rates further to stimulate growth. The outlook for emerging markets is harder to gauge: were a Fed hike to trigger turmoil across Africa, Asia and Latin America, countries there may choose to cut rates to help the economy, or increase them in order to dissuade investors from taking their money abroad.

Why would a rate rise in the US impact the emerging market countries?

We have already seen one of the main impacts: a stronger US dollar, backed by higher US interest rates, tends to depress the values of emerging market currencies at a time when many EM economies are already weakening and their currencies have already slumped against the greenback. The Fed’s rate rise could exacerbate the EM currency turmoil, and even help precipitate a full-blown crisis.

What is tightening and loosening?

When a central bank “loosens” or “eases” policy it essentially increases the supply of money in the economy and pushes down the cost of borrowing. This could be by lowering interest rates, or buying more assets with the aim of putting more money into circulation and encouraging greater economic activity.
“Tightening” is the opposite. If policymakers worry that an economy is begin to overheat, potentially generating too much inflation, they can tighten policy – such as raising the interest rate they charge banks to borrow from them, to make the cost of credit more expensive.
Changes to interest rates can take-up to 18 months to feed through into the real economy.

What is monetary policy?

Central bankers control more than just interest rates. “Monetary policy” is a broad brush term for a whole range of actions, including things like selling or buying assets such as government bonds, raising or reducing the amount of capital banks need to hold against liabilities, and raising or lowering interest rates.
All of these actions impact the cost and supply of money in an economy which are the main levers central banks use to try and keep inflation at its target level and the economy growing at a sustainable speed.
Changes in monetary policy can take-up to 18 months to feed through into the real economy.

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