At a time when many Americans
believe that a recession has descended on the country, they are being
told by Government officials to put their worries aside for the moment
because other economic issues, mainly inflation, have to be dealt with
first.
At a time when many
Americans believe that a recession has descended on the country, they
are being told by Government officials to put their worries aside for
the moment because other economic issues, mainly inflation, have to be
dealt with first.
This message is
coming from the Federal Reserve, but the Bush Administration is not
openly challenging the thesis. And the top financial officials of the
six other major industrial nations, meeting in Washington this week,
have also declared that recession, or the threat of it, is still a
second-rung issue.
The Group of
Seven industrial nations - the United States, West Germany, Japan,
France, Britain, Canada and Italy - even issued a communique calling
recession talk too pessimistic. The communique spoke of ''solid growth''
in the industrial world, ignoring the obviously sluggish economies in
the United States, Canada and Britain.
Millions
of Americans, in particular, are experiencing unemployment, wage
freezes, bankruptcies and falling real estate prices, and concluding
that what they are living through constitutes a recession. How can their
perception, reported in public opinion polls, differ so strikingly from
that of the Federal Reserve and its counterparts elsewhere?
The
answer is that the central banks remain more worried by the threat of
inflation than of recession, and that to ignore the inflationary dangers
now will only mean a deeper recession later. The Middle East crisis is
the principal reason for the anti-inflationary consensus, mainly because
it pushed up oil prices so sharply.
Apart
from the oil price shock, the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates
up to slow a sharp fall in the dollar since July. A weak dollar is
inflationary because it pushes up the price of imports and the Federal
Reserve tries to counteract this by keeping interest rates high enough
to convince holders of foreign currency to buy dollars and invest them
in American securities.
The problem
with this strategy is that high interest rates, the tool used by Western
central banks to fight inflation, tends to make weak economies, like
that of the United States, even weaker, by discouraging the borrowing
that finances purchases and investment.
''The
Federal Reserve, in particular, is admitting, in effect, that under the
current strategy, it cannot avoid a contraction in the economy over the
next one or two quarters,'' said David Hale, chief economist at Kemper
Financial Services. ''Most of us consider that to be a recession.''
A New Definition
A New Definition
No
wonder, then, that Alan Greenspan, in testimony last week before the
Joint Economic Committee, argued for a definition of recession that is
more stringent than the traditional public concept of one. The popular
view is that a recession occurs when the gross national product - the
total value of the new goods and services that the nation is constantly
producing - shrinks for six consecutive months.
Mr.
Greenspan acknowledged that the economy was very sluggish, so much so
that the G.N.P. grew at an annual rate of only 1 percent during the
first six months of 1990, including a minuscule four-tenths of 1 percent
in the second quarter. Without much change in the public's current
sense of malaise, the G.N.P. could easily slip into negative growth for
two quarters, he says.
A true
recession, Mr. Greenspan argued, is a ''cumulative unwinding of economic
activity,'' and not simply a few months of mildly negative G.N.P.
growth that might be reversed when the Commerce Department issues its
annual revisions of earlier statistics.
The
Greenspan formula requires a steep, widespread decline in economic
activity, the sort of trouble that develops when stockpiles of unsold
goods build up as consumer spending drops. As a result, factory orders
are canceled, corporate profits fall, capital investment is cut back and
the unemployment rate shoots up. Looking for Elbow Room? Many
economists accept this process as a key cause of some postwar
recessions. But some note that by raising the issue now, Mr. Greenspan
might be trying to give the Fed elbow room to keep interest rates high,
even during a quarter or two of negative G.N.P. growth.
''The
Fed declares that there is no recession, so there is nothing that
requires drastic policy changes,'' said Alan Levenson, an economist at
the WEFA Group, an economic consulting firm. ''But an individual can
look at what is happening to himself and end up behaving as if he were
in a recession.''
If the Federal
Reserve is seeking elbow room, it is doing so largely out of concern
that rising oil prices, if not countered with high interest rates, will
produce a situation in which workers successfully push for wage
increases to offset the higher costs of gasoline, heating fuel and
numerous petroleum-based products. The resulting wage-price spiral, Mr.
Greenspan argues, would force the Federal Reserve to counterattack by
pushing up interest rates very sharply, in the end provoking greater
economic weakness than exists today. Something like this occurred after
the Arab oil embargo in October 1973.
The
Group of Seven's communique, signed by Mr. Greenspan and Treasury
Secretary Nicholas F. Brady, made the same argument, stating that
''stability oriented monetary policies'' - a euphemism for high interest
rates - would ''reduce the risks of lower economic growth'' in the
future. And Mr. Brady joined in the recession putdown, stating at a news
conference that the American economy still has ''underlying power.''
Nevertheless,
the danger for the Fed, and for the nation, is that the United States
will fall into recession while Mr. Greenspan and the 17 other Federal
Reserve policy makers are still maintaining rates at present levels. The
interest payments on mortgages and most other consumer loans are at 10
percent or more.
'You Hear of Real Weakness'
'You Hear of Real Weakness'
No
economist knows how long it might be before the oil price shock wears
off and the Consumer Price Index, which jumped in August, subsides to an
annual rate of less than 5 percent, the level that has prevailed for
most of the last five years. But even if the oil shock inflation does
not subside soon, the recession danger has prompted some economists to
urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates anyway. A minority
among the Federal Reserve's policy makers favor this approach, including
Martha Seger, a governor.
''If you
talk to people who are real business people and not economists sitting
in a library or the Federal Reserve, you hear of real weakness,'' she
said. ''And if you talk to people in construction and housing, it is
really terrible.''
That raises the
definition question again. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a
prestigious private institute that has become the nation's official
arbiter of when recessions begin and end, offers a definition that seems
closer to the Greenspan view than the popular one. It says a recession
is ''a recurring period of decline in total output, income, employment
and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year and marked by
widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy.''
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