Technically we have visited the 214.00 area 4 times since Jan 2008, each time rejected. I have the 61.8 fib from the July 2007 high at 214.68 which should be touched, TECHNICALLY, will it ?
In order for the geppy to go UP one of two things have to happen.
USD/JPY: The recent rise is because of USD rate increase speculation due to inflation. This is now dissapearing, look at the fed funds index. I think it is at 8% for a rate increase. The USD/JPY goes up because of interest rate differentials. Period. This up move was because of Fedhead speak and nothing else. Think it will last ?
GBP/USD: Surprising positive retail sales boosted the GBP/USD last week which boosted the geppy. But when the retailers are heavily discounting this number will be strong. The GBP/USD is sitting on an important s/r, could it break from here? Possibly.
But the recent (dovish) rhetoric from the BOE suggests that they will not increase their rate regardless of inflationary concerns. No rate increase no strength in GBP/USD.
Market sentiment and fear: The Vix is ticking up. The higher it goes the more likely the carry trades (G/Y and U/Y and E/Y, etc) will go DOWN.
Summary: In order for geppy to break this very strong S/R area of 213.50-214.00 one of these currency pairs has to show some strength. Which one will it be ?
Neither is very strong right now, world economic slowdown coupled with inflationary pressure points in the weak direction for both which would signal a downturn in the geppy.
Both pairs are sitting at critical S/R levels are they strong enough to rise above?
We will find out next week for sure...
By Rustyyy
Ini pandangan aku: News untuk minggu depan yang akan bagi impact pada dollar ialah FOMC meeting. Ia bergantung pada statement yang akan disampaikan samada hawkish ataupun neutral; dimana neutral statement akan bagi bad impact pada dollar. Manakala GBP news pulak tak banyak... Apapun, esok selepas jam 8.00 am; aku akan dapat clue samada akan bull atau bear..
In order for the geppy to go UP one of two things have to happen.
- The USD/JPY has to go up, which means dollar strength or;
- The GBP/USD has to go up which means GBP strength.
USD/JPY: The recent rise is because of USD rate increase speculation due to inflation. This is now dissapearing, look at the fed funds index. I think it is at 8% for a rate increase. The USD/JPY goes up because of interest rate differentials. Period. This up move was because of Fedhead speak and nothing else. Think it will last ?
GBP/USD: Surprising positive retail sales boosted the GBP/USD last week which boosted the geppy. But when the retailers are heavily discounting this number will be strong. The GBP/USD is sitting on an important s/r, could it break from here? Possibly.
But the recent (dovish) rhetoric from the BOE suggests that they will not increase their rate regardless of inflationary concerns. No rate increase no strength in GBP/USD.
Market sentiment and fear: The Vix is ticking up. The higher it goes the more likely the carry trades (G/Y and U/Y and E/Y, etc) will go DOWN.
Summary: In order for geppy to break this very strong S/R area of 213.50-214.00 one of these currency pairs has to show some strength. Which one will it be ?
Neither is very strong right now, world economic slowdown coupled with inflationary pressure points in the weak direction for both which would signal a downturn in the geppy.
Both pairs are sitting at critical S/R levels are they strong enough to rise above?
We will find out next week for sure...
By Rustyyy
Ini pandangan aku: News untuk minggu depan yang akan bagi impact pada dollar ialah FOMC meeting. Ia bergantung pada statement yang akan disampaikan samada hawkish ataupun neutral; dimana neutral statement akan bagi bad impact pada dollar. Manakala GBP news pulak tak banyak... Apapun, esok selepas jam 8.00 am; aku akan dapat clue samada akan bull atau bear..
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