I spent a few weeks trying to get a better understanding of the Dow / G/J correlation. At first I was doing the same thing you’re doing here. But it doesn’t take long to realize that any exact “mirroring” between the Dow and G/J is only temporary, and not all that predictable. It also doesn’t take long to realize that you can’t come up with an effective scalping strategy for it, based on minor Dow fluctuations. Both of these findings can be a step in the right direction, as long as you don’t spend much time on it. That’s because they help clarify things, and remove some misconceptions.
To understand things even better, you need to start with this simple fact: G/J price is derived from two different currency pairs, G/U and U/J. If you multiply the price of G/U by the price of U/J, you will arrive at the price of G/J. Looked at another way, GJ = GU * UJ.
From my observations, it’s U/J’s price that is highly influenced by the Dow, especially during NY session. When G/U is in a tight range, or slowly trending, it’s mostly U/J that causes G/J to move. This is when you see a strong correlation between G/J and the Dow. U/J follows the Dow, and G/J follows U/J. It’s an indirect relationship. On some days you can compare 15 minute charts of G/J and U/J, and they look almost identical. If you then compare them with the Dow, you notice G/J and U/J peaks and valleys are in sync with the Dow for that day. But this nice little correlation starts to crumble on days when G/U price moves around a lot. Remember it’s the other half of G/J.
If you look at larger time frames, the correlation between G/J and the Dow is also the strongest when G/U is stable. People started noticing the correlation while the Pound was strong, stable, and slowing trending upward. But as soon the Pound started becoming unstable (see last December), the correlation ceased to exist. The exact same reasons apply here, as they do on the smaller time frames. U/J was still following the Dow upwards, but G/J wasn’t following it anymore because it was being pulled in the opposite direction by G/U. The Dow would rally strong, but G/J price would remain the same or even go down, because G/U was tanking badly. This was when talk about a “disconnect” began.
But it’s also an oversimplification to think that U/J just follows the Dow around. Lots of times that’s true during NY session. But its also influenced by carry trades, fundamental news, and the Nikkei stock index during Asian session. It also reacts like any other currency pair to support and resistance levels (fibs and moving averages). So it’s not a perfect mirror either, and nobody claims that it is.
All in all, the Dow (and the Nikkei to a lesser extent) are still considered good indicators for G/J, especially during NY and Asian sessions. But they shouldn’t be considered fool proof, or given more importance than they deserve. It's just another tool set for you to use or not, as you see fit. The time when it's most noticeable is when there's a big stock market rally or fall.
To understand things even better, you need to start with this simple fact: G/J price is derived from two different currency pairs, G/U and U/J. If you multiply the price of G/U by the price of U/J, you will arrive at the price of G/J. Looked at another way, GJ = GU * UJ.
From my observations, it’s U/J’s price that is highly influenced by the Dow, especially during NY session. When G/U is in a tight range, or slowly trending, it’s mostly U/J that causes G/J to move. This is when you see a strong correlation between G/J and the Dow. U/J follows the Dow, and G/J follows U/J. It’s an indirect relationship. On some days you can compare 15 minute charts of G/J and U/J, and they look almost identical. If you then compare them with the Dow, you notice G/J and U/J peaks and valleys are in sync with the Dow for that day. But this nice little correlation starts to crumble on days when G/U price moves around a lot. Remember it’s the other half of G/J.
If you look at larger time frames, the correlation between G/J and the Dow is also the strongest when G/U is stable. People started noticing the correlation while the Pound was strong, stable, and slowing trending upward. But as soon the Pound started becoming unstable (see last December), the correlation ceased to exist. The exact same reasons apply here, as they do on the smaller time frames. U/J was still following the Dow upwards, but G/J wasn’t following it anymore because it was being pulled in the opposite direction by G/U. The Dow would rally strong, but G/J price would remain the same or even go down, because G/U was tanking badly. This was when talk about a “disconnect” began.
But it’s also an oversimplification to think that U/J just follows the Dow around. Lots of times that’s true during NY session. But its also influenced by carry trades, fundamental news, and the Nikkei stock index during Asian session. It also reacts like any other currency pair to support and resistance levels (fibs and moving averages). So it’s not a perfect mirror either, and nobody claims that it is.
All in all, the Dow (and the Nikkei to a lesser extent) are still considered good indicators for G/J, especially during NY and Asian sessions. But they shouldn’t be considered fool proof, or given more importance than they deserve. It's just another tool set for you to use or not, as you see fit. The time when it's most noticeable is when there's a big stock market rally or fall.
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