Thursday, January 3, 2008

Rules untuk Elliot Wave - Antara yang penting

Sekadar untuk rujukan untuk count elliot wave..

Konsep: Market akan move dalam 5 wave yang dinamakan impulse atau motive wave direction & 3 correction wave direction. Bila 5 (12345) Impulse Wave + 3 (abc) Corrective Wave; maka satu cycle dah complete.

Dalam Bullish trend; Motive wave ialah wave 12345 dimana wave 1, 3 dan 5 ialah Impulse Wave dimana wave nie akan move in direction of trend dan wave 2, 4 ialah corrective wave. Setiap wave nie ada ciri2 tertentu dan rules setiap wave tersebut membantu untuk mengenalpasti dimana lokasi price in current market.

Biasanya untuk determine Corrective Wave (a,b,c) agak complex dan biasanya wave inilah memberi banyak pengikut elliot wave ni sakit kepala untuk kenalpasti. Ini disebabkan pattern dia agak complex.. dan kena tunggu sampai pattern habis baru nampak jenis corrective wave dia... Secara asasnya ada 3 pattern utama iaitu zigzag, flat dan triangle...

Secara asasnya ada 3 rules yang penting untuk count Elliot Wave...
  1. Wave 2 cannot go beyond the beginning of wave 1 (so wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1)...
  2. Wave 3 never the shortest wave... but can be the longest among the wave 1,3 or 5...
  3. Wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1.. so i don't like to see wave 4 kiss wave 1 territory...
EWI summarises the three rules of Elliott for impulses as follows:

Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
Wave 3 is never the shortest wave.
Wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1...


This is a bit Detail...

Don't get hung up on correct counts... there are basic rules....

Wave 1
Must be able to subdivide into 5 waves.
If 3 waves then probably still in the corrective pattern.

Wave 2
Wave 2 should not exceed beginning of wave 1
3 waves down a completed zigzag.
5 waves down a wave A of a 3 wave Zigzag.

Wave 3
Wave 3 must have a full 5 internal waves.
Wave 3 Cannot be the shortest wave.

Wave 4
Wave 4 cannot enter the price zone of wave 1
See Wave 2 comments.

Wave 5
Wave 5 must have 5 internal waves.

Remember: One thing I have learned is you can and should wait for the trade to come to you---don't pre empt it both entry and exits.

Why you can success with Elliot Wave?

" Elliott Wave can be use as the Primary tool to tell me WHERE I AM IN THE MARKET. This is a powerful tool in my view. If you taking a bullish trade when your clearly in a corrective move is low positive outcome expectancy"..

There are 3 STAND ALONE recommended...
(1) Getting on and trading Wave 3s both long and short.
(2) Joining a wave 3 trade long or short.
(3) Trading The end of Wave 5 long or short.

Another concept...

The rules of Elliott state that wave 3 must NEVER be the shortest wave in an impulse. Now this does not mean it necessarily has to be the longest although in the Stock market third waves are usually the longest out of waves 1,3, and 5.

If we have Ending Diagonal pattern(wedge), and in these structures wave 1 is almost always longest. Knowing this piece of information alone we now know that wave 3 must be equal shorter or shorter in price magnitude and probably time than wave 1. Another combination is that wave 3 = wave 1 and wave 5 extends. Or yet another wave 3 =wave 1 and wave 5 is shorter than both. Quite often these waves are related to each other by 0.618

Wave 3 could also end up being in similar length or only slightly longer than wave 5. Remember the rule: wave 3 CANNOT be the shortest.

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