Cari Green Pips 'Blog'

Revisit - Advice by Mr Vegas

2011-04-16T13:25:00.000+08:00

Nasihat 1: Ini kata2 Mr Tunnel (VEGAS) untuk pedoman diri Sendiri..

" I am going to give you the only bit of professional trader advice. One (1), Investigate a method that you believe makes money over time and stick with it. Two (2), Try to understand the theoretical underpinnings of the model. Three (3), Trade small until totally convinced method works. Four (4), Your success [profits] comes from implementing the method correctly, not guessing where the market is headed.Five (5), Read number 4 again. Six (6), Give up thinking during market hours. Thinking comes when the machines are turned off, not in the heat of battle"

Nasihat 2: Belajar focus...

You only need to master one setup to be a consistently profitable trader. Screen time will allow you to master one setup; after you have mastered one setup "own it” you can add another setup. This can be an ongoing process developing your own style.

The best setup to begin with is the one that you see and understand easiest. If you are forcing yourself to learn a setup because you believe another person is successful using it you may be taking the longer route to profitability. We are all different. Our brains and personalities will gravitate to different setups.

This is also true of exit techniques. Most traders I hear from lengthen their road to profitability by trying to apply too many concepts before owning the first one. They have studied a myriad of techniques but have yet to master any. This allows them to talk about trading but unable to consistently trade profitably.

The first decision to make is; do you desire to be a counter trend trader? or a with the trend trader? Eventually, you can be both. At the beginning, or a new beginning perhaps, you will do best choosing to master a setup and follow the trend. If you have been at this game for awhile and are not yet consistently profitable you know what I am saying is correct.

Secret Method

2010-09-14T01:18:00.001+08:00

Apakah secret method untuk berjaya dalam trading.. Bergantung pada 'cara' kita berfikir... adakah menggunakan indicator yang canggih akan menjamin pendapatan yang konsisten... adakah secret method akan menjamin pendapat yang konsisten...

Price bergerak apabila 'buyers' more than 'sellers' or 'sellers' more than 'buyers'. Jika buyers dan sellers seimbang, maka price akan 'hold'. Jika 'method' yang digunakan adalah 'rahsia'.. logiknya little people know about the method.. so mampukah 'buyers' melebihi 'sellers' atau 'sellers' melebihi 'buyers'... Na mungkin kecuali 'seller' atau 'buyer' itu dari institutions etc. Na mungkin daripada 'individu' yang mempunyai 'secret method'. Adakah institution mendedahkan 'method' mereka kepada 'individu' macam kita. Adakah seseorang 'individu; yang mempunyai 'method' rahsia dapat mengawal 'price'... Na mungkin... So kita harus percaya sekiranya sesorang individu itu mempromosi 'secret method' di internet.

Untuk berjaya 'kita' mesti naik kapal searah dengan majoriti... Jika majoriti adalah sellers; maka kemungkinan price akan turun dan sebaliknya. Jika kita berada 'didalam' kapal yang salah... maka kena belajar untuk selamatkan diri sebelum kapal itu hanyut dengan lebih jauh.

SERT - Setup; Exit; Risk Management & Trade Management adalah formula yang patut diketahui oleh semua trader. Untuk berjaya; perlu fokus pada SERT dan bukannya kepada Entry shj atau exit shj... malah ia bergantung pada SERT.

Selamat Hari Raya

2010-09-11T17:20:00.000+08:00

Salam..

Blog ini banyak menyampaikan maklumat yang berbentuk 'education' dalam forex. Namun hakikatnya untuk berjaya dalam forex 'sebenarnya' tiada 'rahsia' yang perlu diterokai. Tiada 'secret' method yang apabila dijumpai akan berjaya kerana 'secret' yang menjadi 'rahsia' mana mungkin dapat mengerakkan 'price' untuk bergerak dalam satu 'direction'. Rahsia untuk berjaya sememangnya bergantung pada 'skill' yang perlu diasah dalam perjalanan mencari pendapatan dalam 'forex'. Tiada jalan mudah kerana untuk mantapkan 'skill' maka seharusnya cara yang terbaik ialah dengan praktis.. praktis dan terus praktis... Rahsia sebenar untuk mahir dalam skill ini ialah dengan cara 'ulangi' berkali-kali perkara yang sama. Jika hari nie belajar naik kereta... esoknya belajar naik motor... kemudiannya belajar memandu lori dan seterusnya... anda tidak akan mahir memandu.. Cara yang terbaik untuk mahir memandu kereta ialah dengan cara praktis memandu kereta setiap hari sehingga boleh kawal greed dan fear... Sabar dan tidak panik....

Tiada update.. kerana sekarang 'saya hanya mahirkan' guna support dan resistance dengan menggunakan pembaris 'line'.... Semua maklumat yang berkaitan sememangnya akan dapat diperolehi dalam blog ini...

Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri

Chart Update

2010-03-20T23:39:00.004+08:00

Daily Trend - Retracement Over; Swing High Support for Bear

4Hr - Price try to Breaks Ascending Wedge; I expect price may bounce up to 1365X to 137XX.. Then i can add another SHORT position

Chart Update

2010-03-15T16:02:00.004+08:00

Price Now Testing Recent LH - Short Term Sentiment Change if price breaks this level

Im watching next important resistance level... Bear bias...

Lots fight from Bull Recently..

Short Term Sentiment already change; However long Term Bear still intact..

At the moment if the price is within FRIDAY MASTER CANDLE... Waiting for direction.

Update New Chart

2010-03-09T07:05:00.002+08:00

Let's the market decide the direction; price action suggest down...

Chart Update 8 March 2010

2010-03-08T14:03:00.001+08:00

4Hr

Daily

Lets Re-Read This Article..

2010-03-08T05:37:00.001+08:00

Alway remember that The Market Is Going To Do What The Market Is Going To Do.. Most people make a big deal out of market prediction. They think they need to be right 70% or better in order to "pass" the exam that the market gives them. They also believe that they might get an "A" if they could be right 95% of the time. The need to predict the market steps from this desire to be right. People believe that they cannot be right unless they can predict what the market is doing.

Continue Reading...

Chart Update - 5 March 2010

2010-03-05T20:34:00.002+08:00

Expect to see clear direction today.. Trend continuation or Big Retracement

Still FAVOR to see 129xx

New Update...

2010-03-02T07:09:00.003+08:00

Possibility 1...

Possibility 2

Menarik gak orang dok discuss bab FIBO SEQ nie kat Forum CG...

So Retracement dah bermula kat 4Hr TF... so kat mana Retracement itu akan END untuk SELL on Rallies.. So hari nie, aku nak usha guna GUNA SEQ nie... Bermanfaat ker tak... Atau PA still the BEST..

Strategy: Trend Bear so SELL on Rallies.... Aku akan masuk trade kalau RISK REWARD MANTAP SHJ... Sebab no sign yang suggest 4Hr Bear dah END... so MIN REWARD ialah ; price akan TEST RECENT LOW...

Chart Update - 1 March 2010

2010-03-01T22:47:00.004+08:00

Price Belum Lagi Dalam Retracement Mode sejak BREAKS strong support zone recently... Kalau nak SELL on RALLIES.. wait for retracement begin... Biar rugi tak masuk trade daripada rugi bila masuk trade...

Chart Update... Need to wait for confirmation

2010-02-28T23:40:00.004+08:00

1. Daily - Belum confirmed price akan RETRACE based on closed candle on FRIDAY.

2. 4Hr - Belum confirmed price akan RETRACE based on closed candle on FRIDAY.

3. 4Hr; price make a double LOW... so price most likely will bounce and may test NECKLINE...

4. If price breaks NECKLINE in 4Hr & Daily Candle make a NEW HIGH - This suggest price will make bigger retracement..

5. My strategy: RIDE THE BEAR TREND TILL IT ENDS & SELL ON RALLIES...

6. Will update chart if (1) & (2) confirmed.

Update Chart for Geppy 26 Feb 2010

2010-02-26T19:42:00.003+08:00

Lets the market decide; my strategy 'trade until the trend ends'.

Update Chart

2010-02-25T07:39:00.003+08:00

News semalam tak memberi momentum yang kuat untuk price print NEW LOW... Overall trend still bear. Price buat double Low...

Price need to breaks above (3) untuk jadikan Double Bottom valid & trend change to BULL.

Sekiranya price remained below (3)... Means BEAR INCHARGE

My Strategy to look for ENTRY at (5) - SELL.... Tak kisah kalau price gagal breaks (6) sebab aku akan tunggu price breaks at (8)....

So this is my strategy unless i see BULL INCHARGE; i will abandon this strategy.

Update 4Hr Chart

2010-02-24T13:32:00.004+08:00

Weekly SUPPORT untuk price buat NEW LOW...

SELL ON RALLY...

Latest 4hr Chart...

2010-02-23T21:37:00.002+08:00

News from UK: Breaks Descending Triangle..

My Mind At The Moment

2010-02-18T22:49:00.004+08:00

Daily - Possible confirmation of Bear May Continue...

4Hr - Waiting for Confirmation

Sentiment May Change If..

2010-02-17T22:07:00.005+08:00

Daily Trend Still Support Bear - However, the price still moving up - so price in retracement mode; Now the price is testing daily Fib 0.382... I can't see any new LH at daily chart or price test previous bar low to suggest retracement is OVER... So price may continue to move up. Daily Fib 50% is critical; as if price move above the level then it mean Bull is in charge.

In 4Hr TF- Sentiment may change to BULL; but i'm waiting for further confirmation.

As my strategy ONLY TO TRADE IN ONE DIRECTION UNTIL THE TREND IS END...

So as the daily suggest retracement; 4hr sentiment not confirm BULL YET; so... i will wait.

I still favor to downside even i read a few hawkish statement for GBP... I only will favor BULL if 4Hr Trend Confirm UP...

HOPE FOMC meeting will give the CLUE...

News by Mr King; Breaks The Asc. Triangle

2010-02-17T08:54:00.003+08:00

No Trade Zone for Me; Until I See Clear Direction

Bear Masih Berkuasa

2010-02-16T13:54:00.002+08:00

TRADE UNTIL BEAR TREND ENDs..

Latest Update

2010-02-15T16:15:00.004+08:00

Ascending Triangle - above fibs 0.382; so no trade until i see clear direction (breakouts).
Breaks up : Retracement from bigger TF continue...
Breaks Down : Bear continue

Ascending Triangle...

2010-02-13T20:52:00.002+08:00

DownTrend end with Ascending Triangles - Need to see clear breakouts... Favor Down

Chart Update..

2010-02-12T22:34:00.003+08:00

Let's the market decide.... Free Ride Strategy On Board

New Week Low...

2010-02-11T22:27:00.001+08:00

On Board.. See the outcome; expect price will make new low before next monday

Monday - Sideways..

2010-02-08T23:50:00.002+08:00

My Plan: Wait for Rally and Enter

My Strategy On Monday

2010-02-06T10:38:00.004+08:00

4Hr Trend Down... Price below DownTrend Channel
Retrace Mode In Progress
Enter on Rallies & Watch for IBs or Long Wick Candle Reject The Line

Latest 4Hr Chart - 5 Feb 2010

2010-02-05T13:32:00.004+08:00

I make good Green Pips by Enter at Rally (Purely based on above Chart)...

Down Trend Still Strong - Price in Retracement Mode... So strategy is to enter on rally with tight SL.

Latest 4Hr Chart.. suggest bear

2010-02-02T19:26:00.002+08:00

Fib Ret up to 0.618... Let's the market decide. Chart suggest Bear still Incharge.

My Mind At The Moment... 31 January 2010

2010-01-31T14:05:00.003+08:00

Chart suggest Bear In Charge... Direction down;
Strategy: Enter on Rallies

Update Chart - Direction of 4hr Chart

2010-01-29T15:53:00.002+08:00

Let The Market Decide the direction..

My Mind At The Moment...

2010-01-28T21:03:00.003+08:00

28/01/2010 - 9.00 pm - If price make a new low from previous 4Hr Bar; then i will assume the Bear still incharge.

Pound Yen after FOMC before Tokyo Open

2010-01-28T05:47:00.000+08:00

FOMC Statement

2010-01-28T05:30:00.003+08:00

The United States Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 0 to 0.25 percent. This outcome was widely expected because the Fed has been saying that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. However, unlike in the previous FOMC meetings, the decision was not unanimous and Thomas Hoenig voted against the policy action because he believes that “exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period” are no longer warranted. The US dollar reacted positively to the news judging by the initial rally on the USD/JPY exchange rate.Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that economic and financial conditions had changed sufficiently that the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted

Let The Market Decide

2010-01-27T10:45:00.002+08:00

My mind at the moment

2010-01-26T14:03:00.005+08:00

At last, price make a new low from previous bar; So bear still incharge and i join the club. It's important for me to see price smoothly cruise down and make NEW LOW (144.55). If price hesitate to make new Low... i will exit the trade.

My Mind At The Moment...

2010-01-25T19:27:00.003+08:00

New Bear Trend Should Continue... No sign of End of Bear Trend Yet, so the best strategy is Short On Rallies...

Interesting Chart On 22 January 2010

2010-01-23T06:59:00.003+08:00

4Hr Chart

4Hr Chart

Daily Chart

Dah Lama Tak Update...

2010-01-13T16:23:00.001+08:00

TRIANGLES BREAKOUTS

Spotting a descending triangle in a downtrend signals the downside breakout of the support level. The crowd psychology behind the descending triangles is that every time the currency price goes down to a certain level that forms the support there are buyers who want to hold that level stubbornly. They thus push the price up each time the support level is tested.

Thus when the price bounces off the support level, the bears take the opportunity to short again. Sellers are quite anxious to sell as they feel that the currency price should fall over time.

Spotting a descending triangle should allow you to be prepared for a downside breakout from the support level especially if it is a down trend. Bulls and bears face a skirmish with both camps not feeling confident of the next market move as with an ascending triangle.

When the support level is broken many of those long positions which have been placed above that level soon get stopped out. Prices tend to break in the middle or the final third part of the triangle formation.

If the descending triangle is formed during an existing downtrend, it tends to give off even more bearish vibes than if it is formed during an uptrend. But you should always assume the continuation of the prevailing trend unless you have reversal signals in the form of technicals or turn around of the market sentiment.

However, a descending triangle should not be considered to be the final word on impending downside breakout. With that said, prices also sometimes breakout from above the descending triangle successfully in a burst of bullish momentum.

Symmetrical Triangles: A symmetrical triangle has some resemblance to a wedge pattern. A symmetrical triangle consists of two converging trendlines that join a series of lower highs and higher lows. There are no horizontal lines in symmetrical triangles. This differentiates it from the ascending and the descending triangles.

The lower highs reflect the mildly bearish conviction of the sellers as they are willing to accept less and less of the price over time. The higher lows are formed when buyers of the currency pair are willing to pay a bit more to get a piece of action.

A symmetrical triangle tends to be less reliable as compared to an ascending or descending triangle. There is no way to predict the future breakout direction until one of the symmetrical triangle lines is penetrated. As with the other sloping triangles, breakouts usually occur in the middle or the final third of the triangle.

You should always consider other pieces of information so that you can better pinpoint a higher probability trade set up when trading triangle breakouts. Decreased volatility can also be detected with the exponential moving averages and the Bollinger bands besides the triangle formation.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies.

Direction of GJ for Today??

2009-08-24T10:21:00.002+08:00

24 August 2009 @ 10.25 AM

Selamat Berpuasa... Tak berpeluang untuk update sebab OUTSTATION.. InsyaAllah bulan puasa nie tak kemana... So boleh kembali update BLOG nie..

Fundamental....

No Red News today...
Tmr.. GBP Negative.. USD Positive...

Weekly Chart..

Recent Double High, suggest the Weekly UpTrend getting Weak but as long as price do not cross NeckLine; i will assume the upTrend still Intact.. Neckline Price Level is at 146.7xxx... So as long as Price remained above this LEVEL... Weekly Bear not CONFIRMED... However price is due to kiss weekly 5SMA this week...

Recent 4Hr CHART...

Just Enter Long Trade with SL just below the TRENDLINE...

Weekly Mission Accomplished.. What Next??

2009-08-12T06:46:00.003+08:00

Weekly Chart On Monday...

Weekly Chart on Wednesday Morning...

So what next?...

by Owner of Caripips Blog...

Note: I will update the blog next tuesday... Have to attend my wife Convo in Bangi, UKM this week...

3 August 2009 - Direction of GJ... Pending on GBP or USD??

2009-08-03T12:41:00.002+08:00

3 August 2009 .... 12.45 Noon (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental News..

4.30 PM - GBP Positive
10.00 PM - USD Positive..

Questions.. Will the fed will increase rate first or BoE will increase the rate first?? I'm sure NFP this week will give BIG IMPACT....

Technical...

Last Month.. I believe price may Kiss Fibbo 50% before August Start... But price Retrace; but this month; again price open above Fibbo 38.2%... With good momentum; Price may on the way to kiss Fibbo 50% this month... Esp if price make a New Month High....

However; this week price suggest for RETRACEMENT first... So i will watch for Sign of Retracement Complete This Week....

Trend are Up in Monthly TF; Weekly TF & Daily TF...

4Hr Trend Up.. But no confirmation from 1Hr TF..

by Owner of Caripips Blog...

Price Trend.. GJ Quick Update...

2009-07-29T12:56:00.003+08:00

Weekly TF Update...

Daily TF Update...

Monthly Chart... New Bar will start Next Week.. HgL will formed if price failed to make a new high...

Most of Red News till Friday are USD Negative...

This may support Bear for GJ unless there are surprise news especially Jobless Claim tomorrow..

by Owner of Caripips Blog...
Pls Note: No more update till next monday; i will be busy in Malacca for Workshop...

27 July 2009 - GJ Quick Update

2009-07-27T16:36:00.002+08:00

This week Red News...

Today - 10.00 PM; USD Positive...
Tuesday - 6.00 PM; GBP Positive; 10.00 PM - USD Negative
Wednesday - 8.30 PM USD Negative
Thursday - 2.00 PM GBP Negative, 8.30 PM - USD Negative

Market menunggu clue untuk Interest Rate Tighten... Buat masa sekarang Uncle Ben yang menjadi pilihan utama; sebarang clue untuk naikkan Interest Rate; akan buatkan Dollar Strong. Most people believe; US recession will end this December...

Technical.

Weekly & Daily Trend Is Up...
4Hr Trend Bear.. But i've no position at the moment because price in rangebound...

By Owner of caripips Blog

Note: i will not update this blog regularly till next monday... Busy with workshop...

23 July 2009 - GJ Latest Update

2009-07-23T08:21:00.003+08:00

23 July 2009 @ 8.20 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental

2 Red News...
GBP Positive @ 4.30 PM..
USD Positive @ 10.00 PM

After read Uncle Ben Testimonial, i believe ; trader sentiment on dollars is dollar weak ; no sign of dollar will strong until i) Unemployment improved... or ii) Fed decide to increase its interest rate...

Technical

4Hr Trend - Bear.. This is direction of trend that i want to trade...
Price in rangebound...
I may enter Short today if price firmly Breaks 153.7xx within this 4Hrs..

Updated @ 12.10 Noon

4Hr Trend - Bullish Turning... Price in rangebound... Will get confirmation @ 4.00 PM today...
Price failed to formed below 153.7xx within previous 4Hrs...
Bias is Up...

Sentiment support Bullish for GBP with weak for US Dollar... Hope news @ 4.30 will add more fire on this

By Owner of Caripips Blog
W: OP: 154.40 RG:150.38 RS:154.43 M:Ab0Up... T: Up
T: OP: 153.90 RG: 152.37 RS:154.26 M:Ab0Fl..T;Up

Message From Nouriel Robini & Uncle Ben...

2009-07-23T00:02:00.005+08:00

Recent data suggest that job market conditions are not improving in the United States and other advanced economies. In the U.S., the unemployment rate, currently at 9.5%, is poised to rise above 10% by the fall. It should peak at 11% some time in 2010 and remain well above 10% for a long time. The unemployment rate will peak above 10% in most other advanced economies (especially Europe and Japan), too, where social safety nets are broader and thus leading to less short term job losses and pain, but where the effects of the crisis on growth have been even more severe than the U.S.

But these raw figures on job losses, bad as they are, actually understate the weakness in world labor markets. If you include partially employed workers and discouraged workers who left the U.S. labor force, for example, the unemployment rate is already 16.5%; even temporary employment is sharply down. Monetary and fiscal stimulus in most countries has done little to slow down the rate of job losses as economies suffer from problems of insolvency, not just illiquidity, and as the fiscal stimulus programs are too small and not labor intensive enough. As a result, total labor income – the product of jobs times hours worked times average hourly wages – has fallen dramatically.

Moreover, many employers, seeking to “share the pain” of the recession and slow down the rate of layoffs, are now asking workers to accept cuts in both hours and hourly wages. Thus, the total effect of the recession on labor income of jobs, hours and wage reductions is much larger.

Other indicators are suggesting a protracted period of job losses and a persistently high unemployment rate even after the recession is over. The average duration of unemployment is not at an all time high in the U.S. Many manufacturing sectors are on a secular decline (autos, etc.) and employers are shedding jobs on a permanent basis; employment in the previously bubbly sectors (housing and related housing/real estate services, banking and financial services) is falling sharply and will not recover for a long time. The process of offshore outsourcing of both blue collar and white collar jobs is still in full swing. A lot of the job losses in the U.S. and in other advanced economies are structural rather than cyclical; many jobs will never come back.

A sharp contraction in jobs and labor income has many negative consequences on both the economy and financial markets. Nouriel Robini...

Note By Uncle Ben...

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a second day of Capitol Hill testimony, reiterated Wednesday that financial markets remain stressed and that an interest rate is likely to stay at a record low near zero for some time.

"In light of the substantial economic slack and limited inflation pressures, monetary policy remains focused on fostering economic recovery," Mr. Bernanke

"In sum, we are confident that we have the tools to raise interest rates when that becomes necessary to achieve our objectives of maximum employment and price stability," the chairman said....

22 July 2009 - GJ Latest Update...

2009-07-22T10:40:00.003+08:00

22 July 2009 @ 10.40 AM (Malaysia)

Fund-The-Mental

MPC Meetings - GBP Neutral @ 4.30 PM
Uncle Ben testimonial @ 10.00 PM

Technical

4Hr Trend: Down... This is direction of trend that i want to trade today...
Price still in rangebound...
Price breaks rising wedge - add positive point for bear...

Updated @ 8.10 PM...

4Hr Trend; DOwn... Price still in rangebound....

By Owner of Caripips Blog
W: OP: 154.40 RG:150.38 RS:154.43 M:Ab0Up... T: Up
T:OP: 153.51 RG: 151.94 RS:154.21 M:Ab0Up.. T:Up

Latest Chart Trend...

2009-07-21T09:12:00.004+08:00

Momentum don't support for new high in current bar.. so let the market decide...
Waiting for LgH...

The Current Candle will complete @ 12.00 Noon.. And i don't know the outcome of that candle.. Bearish Or Bounce Candle.... I need to wait.... But i will watch 1hr candle at 11.00 am today; to see the outcome of that candle...

21 July 2009 - GJ Update...

2009-07-21T08:52:00.006+08:00

21 July 2009 @ 9.00 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental...

Tonite - Uncle Ben testifies...

Technical....

4Hr Trend - Still Up.. Price In Rangebound....
Daily suggest price may retrace to 154.6xx - 155.0xx..
I will wait for sign of retracement is over today before decide any trade... Bias is Up...

Updated @ 12.10 Noon

4Hr Trend Still Up.. Price in rangebound... Waiting for sign of retracement is over..
Bias still up....

Updated @ 5.30 PM..

4Hr Trend Up.. Price In rangebound...
If price closed below 154.40... 4Hr Trend Change To Bear...
If price closed above 155.20... Retracement is Over...

So i will play with last 4hr candle... Look like pin bar reject fibbo 50%... My entry may not hit as momentum do not suggest for new high on current 4hr candle...

Update @ 8.00 PM

New Pin Bar.. Price still in rangebound... Uncle Ben Testimonial in 2Hrs..
The Best Strategy.. Stay away from market until the event... Since this morning; fundamental sentiment suggest on US Dollar Strong.. Now, that sentiment may change (based what im seeing now on my technical chart) So better wait for news fully digested...

By Owner of Caripips Blog

W: OP: 154.40 RG:150.38 RS:154.43 M:Ab0Up... T: Up
T: OP: 155.54 RG: :151.67 RS: 154.7x M:Ab0Ret.. T:Up

20 July 2009 - Latest Opinion On GJ

2009-07-20T08:05:00.005+08:00

20 July @ 8.00 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-the-mentals...

No Red News... I believe the friday fundamental sentiment on us dollars will continue...
Japan - Bank Holiday...

Technical...

4Hr Trend - Possible Bullish Turning... Need to wait for confirmation @ 12.00 Noon
Weekly & Daily Mom support for New High...
I'm not in any position at the moment...
I close my last position at BE when i see possible Fundamental Sentiment Changes after Friday Red News...

Updated @ 12.10 PM...

4Hr Trend - Bullish Turning.. Need to wait till 4.00 PM for Confirmation of Bull...
Price sitting at SBR Lines... ? Breaks or Bounces... Let's the market decide.. Volume will come @ 3.00 PM after Frankfurt open... I will watch this level carefully...

Updated @ 6.00 PM

4Hr Trend - Confirmed Up @ Closed of 4.00 Pm Candle.. Price due for retracement.. So i will buy at Retracement Price (1hr 5SMA or 4Hr 5SMA) as i will assume the 4Hr Trend To Continue Unless Proven Otherwise...

Updated @ 8.10 PM

My internet very slow today.. 4Hr Trend Still Up.. No sign of rangebound..
Had a position @ 155.29... SL: 100 Pips... Aim for 300 Pips...
No more update till cm.... Internet too slow...

by Owner of Caripips Blog
W: OP: 154.40 RG:150.38 RS:154.43 M:Ab0Up... T: Up
T: OP: 154.40 RG:151.02 RS: 154.34 M:Ab0Up.. T:Up

SBR RBS Lines...

2009-07-19T20:31:00.001+08:00

17 July 2009 - GJ Latest Update...

2009-07-17T05:45:00.007+08:00

17 JULY 2009 @ 5.50 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental...

USD Neutral @ 8.30 PM - Best day to trade purely using technical..

Technical...

4Hr Trend - Still Up... USD Red News with Surprise Result cause price retest Fibbo 50% two times... Price hit my initial trade stop loss and my trading account reduced 2% within few hours...

But I'm decided to re-enter the swing trade as the 4Hr Trend Still Up & 1Hr Line Up and aim for 200 & 300 pips.. If price hit SL again; my account reduced another 2%.. If price hit TP; yesterday loss will recover... So Let's the market decide...

I will monitor this chart; if price breaks HgH... That's good sign for Bull... If price formed a HgL.. Then price in consolidation (undecision) phase...

Updated @ 12.10 Noon

4Hr Trend - Confirmed Bear.. 1Hr Line up.. Momentum Support for further down..
Exit my Long Trade...

Enter Short @ 153.34; SL @ 154.34... TP 200 Pips..

Updated @ 4.02 PM

4Hr Trend Still Bear.. Bearish Momentum... No sign of rangebound in 1Hr...
My Short Trade Still On... Awaiting for price to Hit TP... I don't care if price hit SL... Only exit if 4Hr Trend Change...

Updated @ 8.15 PM

4Hr Trend still Bear.. No sign of rangebound... Plan; hold the swing trade...

Reminder: Always assume the underlying trend to continue unless proven otherwise

By Owner of Caripips Blog

4Hr Trend.. Update...

2009-07-16T15:22:00.002+08:00

16 July 2009 - My Opinion Regarding GJ..

2009-07-16T07:59:00.009+08:00

16 July 2009 @ 8.00 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental

USD Positive @ 9.00 PM - So i will trade purely technical today..

Technical

4Hr Trend - Still Up... No Sign of Rangebound.. I only will see beginning of rangebound if price firmly breaks 154.5xx...

Price hit 155.15 yesterday; then retrace less than 100 pips.. So at the moment bull still incharge. However, I believe this price level is important; if price closed above this level this week; then bull getting strong.. As long as price closed below this level this week... then; bear still have some hope.. But i don't care because i just trade in direction of 4Hr Trend.. I just want price to retrace before enter any swing trade again...

My Daily Chart telling me; current daily trend is Up...

4Hr TF - Price breaks Double Low Neckline = Sign of End of Bear Trend in 4Hr...
Daily TF - Price breaks HNS neckline = Not a good sign for Bear if I see New Daily High Today..

Updated @ 12.10 Noon

4Hr Trend - Still Up Trend... Last night after re-study all timeframes; i see that 155.0xx is the maximum price can go up this week... Today price bounces from 155.15... Price now in rangebound... If 4Hr trend change to bear; i believe price will retest Double Low... If 4Hr Trend remained up... 1Hr Line up.. i will swing trade with aim to get at least 300 pips...

4Hr formed a HgH now...

Updated @ 4.10 PM

Price still in rangebound... 4Hr Trend Up.. Bearish Turning if price closed below 153.2xx @ 8.00 PM..

USD Positive @ 9.00 PM Tonite... Will update after that... I May enter swing trade anytime soon..

Updated @ 8.20 PM

4Hr Trend Up.. Retracement is Over if @ 9.00 PM; 1Hr candle closed above 154.26...

So My Plan Tonite; if price closed above 154.26 @ 9.00 PM; I will enter the swing trade with TP 200 & 300 Pips...

Updated @ 9.10 PM

4Hr Trend Up.. 1Hr Line Up (open above 154.26).. I Believe Retracement Is Over...
TIC Red News - Bad For US Dollar

Swing Trade On.. Buy @ 154.12 (Near 1Hr 5SMA) SL @ 153.12... 1St post TP 200 Pips & 2nd Post TP 300 Pips..
MM Within Emotional Level.. I don't care if price hit stop loss..

Note: I'm bit busy tomorrow, may not update the blog as usual; however i won't adjust this trade (SL & TP) until it hit TP or SL... unless i saw 4hr trend change to bear...

Reminder: It's not about buy low or sell high; but i believe its about buy at the right time.. either the price is low or high it's doesn't matter as long as i enter at right time...

By Owner of Caripips Blog

15 July 2009 - GJ Hit Daily HNS Neckline...

2009-07-15T07:00:00.015+08:00

15 July 2009 @ 7.00 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental - Red News

Morning - BoJ Press Statement + Interest Rate
4.30 PM - GBP Negative
8.30 PM - USD Positive
Early Thursday Morning - FOMC Meeting Minutes

Technical

4Hr Trend Still Up... No Sign of Rangebound..
Swing Trade - Hit TP (Alhamdulillah)...

If Latest 4Hr Candle complete with Pin Bar @ 8.00 AM; I will trade this candle.. This is against the current trend trade... But daily chart show that price hit head and shoulder neckline (Support Become Resistance Line); if in daily chart, price close below this line; then; another positive point for me to trade this pin bar even though it's against the trend...
If price close below 4hr resistance line (double bottom neckline) - then i have another positive reason for me to trade this 4hr candle.. So i will wait until current 4hr candle to complete to make this decision

I hope the momentum will support me on this plan..

Updated @ 8.10 Am

4Hr Trend - Still Up.. 1Hr Line Up; No Sign of Rangebound...
4Hr Candle Ended with Bullish Candle testing the Daily HNS Neckline...
I prefer to stay aside..

I'm only enter Long if price retrace; 4hr maintain Up.. & 1Hr Line Up...
I'm only enter short if If 4hr Trend Change to Bear... 1Hr Line Up
I will trade against the trend if i see HgH reject this Neckline; provided the trade give me a good risk and reward...

So if i see HgH @ This Neckline Level.. I believe price will retrace; then i will attack this beast again if the above criteria fulfill .... I will wait for further confirmation before take any trade...

Updated @ 12.40 Noon

4Hr Trend - Up.. Probably we will see rangebound soon especially if price firmly breaks 152.2xx.. So i'm still stay aside; will decide after current 4hr candle complete.. My plan still same..

Long if Price enter rangebound; then 4hr maintain up; 1hr line up...
Short if 4hr trend change to bear & 1hr line up..

I'm Still waiting for formation of 4Hr HgH...

Updated @ 4.30 PM

4Hr Trend - Still Up.. No sign of rangebound...
4Hr candle closed below Neckline..
I personally think; retracement will start after 8.00 PM..
So i will stay aside until i see clear information..
At the moment; my plan still same...

Updated 4.40 PM

GBP Negative surprise result to Positive News with Revision... Good for pound... GU akan ajak GJ ikut....

Update 8.20 PM

My chart telling me.. please wait until you see clear information...
Weak Bullish Momentum... Simply means weak bull trend... 4Hr Trend still up... My plan still same.....

Update @ 9.50 PM

After re-study all time frames chart; the chart telling me; the maximum price can go up for this week is only up to 155.0xx... The current price is 153.9xx.. So eventhough the 4hr trend still up; i will not consider to enter any trade if the reward is less than 150 pips... If price retrace; and 4hr trend maintain up & 1hr line up but the reward is less than 150 pips - i will not take that trade this week.. If the trend change to bear; i believe this time price will easily breaks recent support (146.7xxx)...

I will monitor this pair closely...

Reminder: Secret Recipe for Disaster; " Trade Against The Trend"

by Owner of Caripips Blog

GBPYEN Trend - Latest Update

2009-07-14T17:16:00.004+08:00

As long as i don't see next HgH point; then i believe the Trend Up...
Price @ Previous Resistance Line... But No Clear Sign of Bounce... Most of the time; price don't like any SR Line.. Most of the time price will run away from SR Line... So if the price stick around the line... Most of the time; it's will breaks... So I believe price will breaks the line.. i just want to wait for further confirmation..

Next Resistance is @ Support Become Resistance Line (HNS Neckline) ... I will monitor the price action at this line today; if price approach the line... I believe; its best time to SELL if price bounce from this line...

14 July 2009 - Short Medium Term Control By Bull

2009-07-14T06:55:00.011+08:00

14 July 2009 @ 7.00 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental

Yesterday @ 6.30 PM; i really underestimate Uncle Trichet Speech.. However; today we have GBP Negative Red News @ 4.30 PM; USD mixed Red News @ 8.30 PM

GBP Negative Red News @ 4.30 PM CPI expected 1.8%... "Inflation looks set to fall below the Bank of England's target for the first time in almost two years in June due to falling energy costs and favourable base effects. Despite the sharpest economic contraction in more than 50 years, inflation has been slower to fall in Britain than in many of its trading partners, largely because of the pound's sharp drop on the foreign exchanges. Consumer price inflation has been above the central bank's 2 percent target since October 2007, peaking at a series high of 5.2 percent last September"Source from FORBES...

Technical:

I saw confirmation of 4Hr Bull Trend @ 4.00 AM...

Double Low & TrendLine broken add positive point for Bull..
Broken of Double Low Neckline; may confirmed the end of recent 4Hr Bear Trend...

So i will assume the up trend will continue unless proven otherwise..

Updated @ 8.10 AM

4Hr Trend - UpTrend.. 1Hr Line Up
Swing Trade On @ 151.23 with SL @ 150.23
First Post TP: 150 Pips & 2nd Post TP : 200 Pips

Latest 4Hr & Daily Momentum support for price moving Up..
MM within Emotional Level. If no trend change; i will keep this trade either hit TP or SL...

Updated @ 1.40 PM

When candle closed @ 12.00 Noon; 4Hr Trend Still Up.. No sign of rangebound..
My swing trade still on... I don't care if price hit SL...
Latest 4Hr momentum support for price moving up..

4Hr Candle ended with Hanging Man.. So this 4Hr Candle is very important; if i see new high; then i believe price will hit my TP...

Updated @ 4.55 PM

4Hr Trend: Still Up... No sign of rangebound..
Momentum Flat (I'm not happy with price action at the moment - uncertain for past 12Hr) ..
So i decide to exit one post with positive pips & keep another post until market decide (hit SL or TP)...

News Result: Neutral... I will follow my technical.. If price firmly breaks 151.00... The market back in rangebound..

Updated @ 8.00 PM

4hr UpTrend Still Intact with no sign of rangebound..
So i decide to keep my current Long Trade...
Awaiting for News @ 8.30 PM today....
Price @ Resistance Line.. Waiting for Bounces or Breaks... But i believe with 4Hr Trend.. So if price still ok means no rangebound.. price will continue with current 4hr trend direction..

Reminder: Always assume the underlying trend to continue unless proven otherwise...
By Owner of Caripips Blog

Symmetrical Triangle In Action

2009-07-13T14:09:00.005+08:00

Update Chart: After breakouts of sym. triangle, price just move less than 200 pips.. end up with double low & inverted head and shoulder.... Hmm another failed chart pattern... Should read this again..

I saw this chart pattern forming 2Hrs ago.. Click Here... Price may move 500 pips after breakouts.. I'm looking for another trade (swing trade) position @ 4.00 PM if i get confirmation of 4Hr Trend & i will update here..

15M TF - Symmetrical Triangle

2009-07-13T12:14:00.003+08:00

How to trade sym. triangle.. Click Here.. Look at Number 1 (start) & Possible of Number 5 (Breakouts level) for Clue... So basically this chart support for Bear.. but always wait for confirmation..

13 July 2009 - Short-Medium Trend Unclear..

2009-07-13T09:29:00.010+08:00

13 July 2009 @ 9.30 AM

Fun-The-Mental

No Red News - So the best day to trade using purely technical.

Technical

4Hr Trend - Uncertain..
At the moment; price in rangebound;
Price need to FIRMLY BREAKS 151.2xx for Bull to Control..
If price firmly breaks 149.3xx; then Bear In Control..

Weekly Momentum & Daily Momentum - Support for price moving down...

Chart: The 4Hr Bear interrupted by formation of LgH... If I see HgL; then confirmed; price in UnCertain Phase.. Low Breakouts mean continuation of Bear Trend...

Updated @ 12.15 Noon

4Hr Trend Still Uncertain..
Daily & Weekly Momentum support for Down..
Latest 4Hr Momentum - Weak bearish... Need to wait @ 4.00 PM for Clear info..

Small TF (15M TF) Suggest for Symmetrical Triangle - Possible continuation of Bear Trend after valid breakouts.. Please study how to trade symmetrical triangle for more info... I might trade this chart pattern today...

Updated @ 1.30 PM

After re-study 4Hr TF - I believe if next 4hr Candle (4.00 PM) open below previous LgH Bar @ 148.3xx.. I will have confirmation of 4hr Bear Trend; I believe price ready to shoot 500 Pips after that (Price may kiss 143.xx)... ATM; I'm waiting for latest 4hr candle to complete..

Updated @ 4.15 PM

4Hr Trend - Confirmed Bear.. 1Hr Line Up..
This is the direction that i want to trade today...
Momentum Flat..
But Swing Trade On... May add position if price retrace to 4Hr 5SMA
MM within emotional level; i don't care if price hit SL...

Updated @ 820 PM

4hr Trend - Still Bear. This is the direction i want to trade. At the moment i will assume the 4Hr trend will continue unless proven otherwise..
4hr Momentum - Weak Bearish.. Momentum do not suggest for any new low within next 4Hr..
So i will wait for next 4hr candle for more clue..
If price firmly breaks 149.1xx.. The price in range bound again..

By Owner of Caripips Blog
Note: Saya ada terima email bertanyakan tentang caripips blog; So secara asasnya saya concentrate on current 4Hr Trend (Short-Medium Term Trend). I can decide the trend within 12Hr.. Saya cadangkan guna cara sendiri untuk cari entry. Caripips Blog hanya akan concentrate pada short-medium term trend. Jika sebarang persoalan; sila rujuk email dibawah. Tq for visit this blog.

GBPJPY Monthly Trading Patterns 1999 - 2005

2009-07-11T18:30:00.001+08:00

Latest Chart - Update

2009-07-10T16:52:00.001+08:00

Bear.. Bear..Bear..

10 July 2009 - GJ Bull Vs Bear???

2009-07-10T08:00:00.004+08:00

10 July 2009 @ 8.00 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental

GBP Positive @ 4.30 PM
USD Negative @ 8.30 PM

Technical

4Hr Trend - Up... However the PA suggest Bear.. I want to see Both support each others..
I exit both my long trade with 100 pips profit. I enter that Long Trade @ 12.00 MN; my initial target is @ 152.7x & 153.xx... But Daily Momentum suggest Daily Retracement Is Over... So i decide to stay aside until i see clear clue...

At the moment; i want to wait for
1. HgL at 4Hr TF...
2. If price move to 153.xx... I want to see price action at that level ? Bounces or Breaks?

Updated @ 4.10 PM

Swing point of HgL appeared @ 12.00 Noon & i get further confirmation of this HgL @ 4.00 PM Candle today.. If price moving higher than this HgL level; then bull in control. But at the moment i believe Bear In Control... Daily Momentum & Latest 4Hr Momentum support the Bear....

This morning i saw momentum reading suggest the daily retracement is over. Today @ 1.00 PM, 1Hr TF confirmed that retracement is Over... This add the positive point for Bear...

The next support is at 149.7xx.. If this price broken; I will see 4Hr & 1Hr line up, then i expect price will shoot down 400-500 pips & retest the previous LgL...

My bias is Bear... I'm waiting for 149.7xx support to be broken; before add another SHORT trade (swing trade) . I have 2 post from SCALP TRADE SETUP for SHORT. I don't care if the price Hit SL because the MM is within my emotional Level...

I hope GBP news at 4.30 PM will support the above views..

By Owner of Caripips Blog

My Mind On GJ

2009-07-10T06:30:00.004+08:00

4hr TF... Waiting for Sign of HgL..

Hanging Man follow by Outside Vertical Bar...

9 July 2009 - Latest Update..

2009-07-09T08:12:00.010+08:00

9 July 2009 @ 8.15 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental

GBP Rate Statements - Pound Neutral

Technical

First: I believe retracement on monthly TF is over.. Bear trend resume..
Second: The current daily Trend Is Bear until Proven Otherwise...

Current 4Hr Trend: Bear... At the moment price in rangebound...
I will enter swing trade again if 4hr & 1Hr line up...

Updated @ 1.10 PM

4hr Trend: Still Bear.. 1hr move opposite direction.. So price still in rangebound
I will enter swing trade if 4Hr and 1hr line up...
4Hr momentum suggest possible new 4hr previous bar High...

4Hr Trend.. Waiting for HgL..

Updated @ 4.04 PM

4Hr Trend - Uncertain... Bias is Bear; Howver if @ 8.00 PM tonite; 4Hr candle closed above 151.6xx; then the short-medium term trend is Up.. So i will wait until 8.00 PM for decision. We have important GBP News at 7.00 PM... I will follow..

Updated @ 8.05 PM

4Hr Trend - Bullish Turning... Waiting for confirmation @ 12.00 MN... No Sign for HgL yet..
No swing trade until i see clear direction of Trend..
Retracement in IntraDay still not over...
4Hr candle ended with hanging man, for confirmation i need to wait until new candle to complete at 12MN (New Low - Suggest Down; New High - Suggest Retracement will continue)...

4hr price open above Fibbo 50%, suggest that price may move further up to test Fibbo 61.8% or even higher..

Momentum reading suggest i will see New High compared to current candle...

Conclusion: My short-medium term trend bias now is up. If the up trend confirmed @ 12.00MN.. Then i see 4Hr lined up with 1Hr, i believe price may shoot another 150 - 200 pips. up. If all these happen, price may test 153.xx (daily head and shoulder neckline) tonite or tommorrow...

At the moment; i plan to stay aside..

Reminder:
Always assume the underlying trend to continue until proven otherwise...

By Owner of Caripips Blog

My Mind On GJ

2009-07-09T05:45:00.005+08:00

Daily Trend Is Bear Until Proven Otherwise...

Monthly Retracement Is Over Until Proven Otherwise... Latest candle still not complete; its better to wait for candle to complete.. But price make a new low make me believe the monthly retracement is Over...

8 July 2009 - New Low... Suggest Bear may continue

2009-07-08T07:26:00.009+08:00

8 July 2009 @ 7.20 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental

No significant red news - best day to trade purely using chart.

Technical

Price make a new low.. Breaks 300 SMA on 3rd attempt as i expected...
Price suggest bear..

4Hr Trend - Still uncertain; i still need to wait.. the criteria of my definition of trend still not confirmed.. Even though my bias is bearish based on price action; i will wait for more confirmation...

My next support is @ 150.9xx - 151.1xx... Can price reached this level today? I'm waiting for latest momentum reading (another 40 minutes).

Updated @ 8.10 AM

Daily momentum support further down.. I hope i can see the 4hr trend confirmation @ 12.00 noon today.. and then looking for swing trade after that. My scalp trade on Free Ride...

Updated @ 12.30 Noon

4Hr Trend - Confirmed Bear.. Momentum suggest further down..
Price may retrace to 1hr 5SMA... I will follow this intraday retracement for better entry for swing trade..

Updated @ 4.05 PM

4Hr Trend - Bear.. Latest momentum suggest another new low..
Price bounce from 150.96.. This morning i see support almost at this level 150.9xx - 151.1xx..
I expect price may retest this level soon..

My swing trade @ 152.00 triggered - MM within emotional level.. Either hit SL or TP; i don't care...

( Minda Aku Sekarang: Looking at the chart; i think price need to retrace to collect more attractive trader... then i can see clear breakouts.. So i must monitor this trade.. That the reason; my money at risk for this trade is only half than normal... )

Updated @ 8.20 PM

4Hr Trend - Still Bear.. This is the direction that i want to trade.
Last 4hr momentum didn't their job well.
I expect a new low, but 4Hr Candle end up with Undecision...
At the moment; the price either will retrace or continue the bear trend.. With bullish divergence seen everywhere; we may see a retracement up to 153.xx. If price retrace, price may hit my short stop loss because price may retrace up to 153.xx... However i will keep this short trade, At the moment i not intent to add any new trade until i see current 4hr CS to complete at 12 MN. This candle will give me a clue either price may resume the current trend or retrace up to 153.xx...

So.. i only will open computer again at 12MN.. Good Nite

By Owner of Caripips Blog

7 July 2009 - GJ Trend???

2009-07-07T11:50:00.009+08:00

7 July 2009 @ 11.50 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental

Red News - GBP Negative @ 4.30 PM

Technical

As I expected price bounces significantly after reject my favorite SMA 300 Line... Alhamdullillah, my first post hit TP; 2nd post: Still Free Ride..

4Hr Trend - Bullish Turning; need to wait for confirmation; may be need to wait till 4.00 PM today for confirmation. At the moment; price in rangebound..

I'm waiting for price to decide the direction. Bull or Bear; i will follow

Updated @ 4.05 PM

4Hr Trend - Uncertain; No confirmation of Bull Turning'.
At the moment my Bias is Downtrend...
4Hr Momentum - Bias to Down...
1hr Tf - suggest retracement completed... Price ready to shoot down...

I exit all my previous counter-trend trade earlier..
I'm waiting for GBP news... Looking for Next Bear Trade opportunity...

(i have one short scalp trade aiming for 150pips)..

Updated @ 4.50 PM

GBP News - Negative for pound...
So basically i will follow purely technical from now...
I will keep my Short Scalp Trade until it Hit TP or SL...
I believe if we see 4hr line up with 1hr today; price may shoot at least 300 pips. I will enter swing trade if 4hr & 1hr line up. At the moment; my bias is Bear but no confirmation of bear trend yet.

Updated @ 7.30 PM

I will let the market decide their direction.. then i will follow..
Price still in rangebound..

this is my plan b4 im out for dinner...

By Owner by Caripips Blog

" I almost forgot that today is my wedding anniversary. Last year i'm having dinner at PanThai Restaurant Langkawi. So i just book a table dinner at Bayview Georgetown. @ 7.30 Pm Tonite.They have very nice restaurant at the roof of the hotel & can view the whole of georgetown from there..

6 July 2009 - Daily Opinion

2009-07-06T09:51:00.008+08:00

July 2009 @ 10.00 AM (Malaysia).

Fun-The-Mental

No Red News - Trade purely based on technical today

Technical

4hr Trend - Bear since last Thursday..
Price retrace up to 157.8xx after that...
Weekly & Daily momentum today support the bear move..
Weekly suggest price may Kiss 155.2xx - 155.5xx..

I want to see price action today after price kiss 155.2xx...
At the moment i will assume the bear trend will continue until proven otherwise..

Update @ 12.05 Noon

4Hr Trend - Still Bear..
4Hr suggest price may retrace up to 4hr 5SMA..
I'm waiting for good opportunity to swing trade; will decide @ 4.00 PM today

Update @ 4.55 PM

Away from computer...
4Hr Trend - Bear
My entry triggered when price retrace to 4Hr 5SMA, 200 Pips Hit TP..
4Hr Remained Bear, but i'm stay aside from any swing trade; wait for price retrace then re-enter later..

Updated @ 8.10 PM

Price Bounce from 300 SMA.. Formed indecision candle..
4Hr Trend - Still Bear..

Momentum suggest retracement/ sideways..

I decide to Trade this bounce candle.. with 1st post TP 1:1 & 2nd Post TP 1:3.. This is against the trend trade.. So my MM within emotional level... i don't care if the price may hit SL..

After revisit FF; Red News @ 10.00 PM - USD Positive

By Owner of caripips blog

Quote By Marc Faber

2009-07-04T15:29:00.001+08:00

“The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer/software it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I’ve been doing my part.” June 2008 by Marc Faber

3 July 2009 - Gj Bear Trend

2009-07-03T09:09:00.006+08:00

3 July 2009 @ 9.15 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental

GBP Positive news @ 4.30 PM.. Trade purely technical today.
US - Holiday..

Technical:

4Hr Trend - Bear.. IntraDay Chart - Retrace..
I see the possibility for price to retrace up to 157.1xx to 157.5xx

Updated @ 12.40 Noon

4Hr Trend - Still Bear.. Retracement Mode in IntraDay Chart..
Now i see price may retrace up to 158.1xxx..
I'm waiting for Intraday Retracement to complete.. before enter any new trade...
Obviously now i need to see chart every hour...

Updated @ 5.00 PM...

4Hr Trend - Still Bear.. Intraday suggest rangebound...
US - Bank Holiday
I'm will stay aside today; and trade again next week...

Reminder:
Always assume the underlying trend to continue unless proven otherwise.

By Owner of Caripips Blog.

2 July 2009 - Daily Opinion On GJ

2009-07-02T10:07:00.005+08:00

2 July 2009 @ 10.15 AM (Malaysia)...

Fun-The-Mental

Red News - USD Negative @ 8.30 PM (NFP).

Esok US Cuti.. NFP biasanya friday; akan release hari nie.. Adakah NFP akan tunjuk jalan kepada GJ... I will wait until my technical chart proved that..

Technical

My 4Hr Trend still uncertain.. So i have no swing trade position..
At the moment; my bias is Up.. But i need to wait for confirmation..

Will wait current 4Hr candle completed @ 12.00 Noon today

Update 1.20 PM

Masih belum jelas halatuju... will wait for completed 4Hr @ 4.00 PM...

Update 6.20 PM

4Hr Trend - Confirmed Bear... Enter at Near 4Hr 5SMA.. Swing Trade..
So; will see either price hit TP or SL..

Update @ 8.40 PM

4Hr Trend - Bear.. Enter Swing Trade @ 4Hr 5SMA when price retrace..
NFP Negative for Dollars..

Reminder; No Matter How Bad The News It Is; 90% of the time the market will follow My 4Hr Trend..Tonite Swing Trade Tp @ 150 Pips (First Post) & 200 Pips (2nd Post)..

By Owner of caripips blog.

1 July 2009 - Gj Direction???

2009-07-01T09:07:00.007+08:00

1 July 2009 @ 9.10 AM (Malaysia)..

FunTheMental

Red News Today..

GBP Positive @ 4.30 PM
USD Positive @ 8.15 PM
USD Positive @ 10.00 PM
USD Negative @ 10.00 PM
(ha ha ha.. same time but one positive & one negative..??? Jgn tertipu by FF Calendar)

Technical:

Start with Monthly Chart... Main Trend Still Bear.. Price in Retracement Mode.. But today price open above Fibbo 38.2%.. Support by momentum strongly pointing up... i expect price may kiss Fibbo 50% before August start...

4Hr Trend: Uncertain... Possible bearish turning; i will wait @ 12.00 noon to see clear 4hr trend direction. So, I will stay aside until i see clear 4hr trend...

Update @ 1.15 PM

4Hr Trend: Uncertain.. need to wait till 4.00 PM for further clue..

Update @ 4.05 PM

4Hr Trend: Still Uncertain.. So i have to wait another 4Hr to decide the trend...

Update @ 10.00 PM

Red News today; Suggest Strong Pound & Weak Dollar
4hr Trend: Waiting for Confirmation..
Eventhough the chart suggest Bull Incharge. Need to wait for further confirmation..

Scalp Trade On: Aim for 120 pips.. Look promising to win.

By Owner of caripips blog

30 June 2009 - Bull Trend On GJ..

2009-06-30T10:13:00.006+08:00

30 June 2009 @ 10.20 AM (Malaysia)

Fun-The-Mental

Red News..
02.00 PM - Pound Negative
04.30 PM - Pound Positive
10.00 PM - US Dollar Positive

Technical:

Semalam (29 June 2009 @ 4.00 PM); 4Hr Trend - Up Trend.. 1Hr Lined Up @ 7.00 PM. Price shot 200 pips after 1Hr Lined Up In Same Direction..

Today 4Hr Trend: Uptrend...

I Expect price will retrace to 158.1xx - 158.5xx before current trend resume..
So my plan today; to wait for price retrace; if 4Hr Trend still UP.. Will enter swing trade (Buy) after i see 1Hr Lined Up..

Updated 1.10 PM

4Hr Trend - Remained UpTrend..
Expected retracement to 158.1xx - 158.5xx..

Updated 4.05 PM

4Hr Trend - Remained Up Trend
This the direction i want to trade today...
Still waiting for retracement to complete at IntraDay Chart...
4.30 GBP News - Positive for Pound

Updated 8.10 PM

4Hr Trend - Still Support Up..
Price retrace to 158.5xx as expected..
Still waiting for clear sign suggest retracement completed..
May enter swing trade today; if possible..
Reminder:
GBP News - GU determine direction of GJ...
US Dollar News - UJ determine direction of GJ..

By Owner of Caripips Blog..

29 July 2009 - ??? Direction of GJ

2009-06-29T11:13:00.002+08:00

29 July 2009 @ 11.22 AM (Malaysia).

Fun-The-Mental

No Red News today... I will follow only my technical sign to trade today.

Technical

4Hr Trend - Uncertain...

Price patterns suggest.. I will see BIG RANGE price soon..
I will stay aside; will take action after i see clear direction (Up or Down).

By Owner of Caripips Blog

26 June 2009 - Who will win the battle?

2009-06-26T08:00:00.008+08:00

26 June 2009 - 8.00 AM (Malaysia).

Fun-The-Mental

No red news today.. Today trading purely based on technical...

Technical:

4Hr Trend - Still Uncertain (it may go up & it may go down)..
I need to wait for confirmation @ 12.00 noon today.
So i have no swing trade position now (btw.. my swing trade yesterday hit stop loss)...
If the 4Hr Trend confirmed the Direction; i will reassess 1Hr TF for entry...

Scalp Trade: Will look for opportunity today from 11.00 Am to 11.00 Pm (Malaysia).

What happen to my Descending Triangle Patterns on 4Hr?
The patterns still intact.. No clear breakouts.. I will monitor this patterns until i see clear breakouts - To assess clear strong direction...

Update: 1.00 PM

4Hr Trend: Still Uncertain.. No clear direction..
No swing Trade Until I determine the clear 4Hr Direction.. Let the market decide..
Will see 4Hr completed candle @ 4.00 Pm for Clue

Possible scalp trade is coming.. Short..

Update 4.50 PM..

No Scalp Trade.. Uncertain 4Hr Trend (??? Up.. )..
Need to wait another 3Hr for decision @ 8.00 PM for clue..

Update 8.05 PM

4hr Trend: Uncertain.. I guess, no swing trade till next week.
Enter short scalp trade.... awaiting outcome.. Let the market decide

By Owner of Caripips Blog.

25 June 2009 - Direction of GJ???

2009-06-25T09:12:00.010+08:00

25 June 2009 @ 9.15 AM (Malaysia)..

Fun-the-mental..

Red News -
US Dollar - Positive (8.30 PM).
UnCle Ben - 10.00 PM

So we can use purely technical untuk Trade Hari nie..

Technical..

4Hr Trend - Masih UP walaupun berdepan dengan pelbagai News semalam..
So trend direction untuk trade sehingga 12.00 Noon ialah UP..

Will look for Swing Trade untuk Buy only till 12.00 Noon..
Will look Scalp trade will start after 11.00 AM today..

Note: Descending Patterns in 4Hr is still not complete yet.. This pattern simply means undecision from buyer and seller, and i don't know who will win the battle, it can either Bulls or Bears.. so if i want to play with this chart pattern; then i need to wait for this pattern to complete and then see the breakout.. most of the time price will continue in direction of breakout..

Update 12.00 Noon

4Hr Trend: Still Up.. 1Hr follow the same direction..
Swing Trade BUY on : Aim for 200 pips..
Let the market decide; Hit TP or SL.
Money Management Within Emotional Level...

No scalp trade..

Update 4.15 PM

4Hr Trend: Still Up.. 1Hr Follow the same direction..
Swing Trade BUY: Still intact..
Price may hit my SL.. but i don't care because the MM within my emotional level.
Let the market decide..
I will keep this trade until i see 4hr trend change...

No scalp trade...

Update 8.00 PM

4Hr Trend - Uncertain.. Possible Bearish Turning (only can be confirmed 12.00 MN).. However 1Hr Down - expect rangebound.. Awaiting for Next Possible Breakout if 4Hr & 1Hr Lined Up again..
However, price may Hit my Stop Loss Soon (Swing Trade)..
No opportunity to enter Scalp Trade - Away from computer..
4Hr Trend Direction only can be confirmed @ 12.00 MN..
Looking for Scalp Trade - Favor Down..

Reminder:

"Always assume the underlying trend to continue unless proven otherwise"..

By Owner of Caripips Blog.

24 June 2009 - GJ Opinion

2009-06-24T07:59:00.013+08:00

24 June 2009 @ 8.05 AM (Malaysia).

Fun-The-Mental.. Apa yang ada?

6.00 PM - GBP Neutral Red News
8.30 PM - USD Negative Red News
9.30 PM - GBP Inflation Report Hearings
10.00 PM - USD Positive Red News
10.45 PM - GBP - BoE Gov Speaks
2.15 AM - FOMC Statement

Wow.. today we have lots of Red News..

Technical

4Hr Trend - Undetermined.. No clear direction. Need to wait for further confirmation @ 12.00 Noon

Descending Triangle Patterns - Support Bear; also need to wait for further confirmation..

Current Resistance Level: 157.1xx - 157.5xx..

Current Action: Wait... Stay Sideline until 12.00 Noon..

Update 12.10 Noon:

4Hr Trend - Confirmed Up Trend @ 12.00 Noon... So will look for BUY opportunity until proven otherwise. 4Hr Momentum - Strong Untuk Push Up. 1Hr Momentum suggest retracement. So im expect to see Price shoot another 200 pips Up. Best entry at 1Hr Retracement.
So enter Swing Trade (Long).. Wait n see for Hit SL or TP..

No Scalp Trade

Update 4.40 PM

4Hr Trend Still Up..
My Current Position Trade Is Free Ride.. Wait for Price HIT 2nd Post TP (Win). or SL (Breakeven).. Lots of news today.. We may see lots of volatility today

Update: 6.20 PM..

As expected.. GBP News Neutral.. So purely guna technical.. So mlm nie kita akan jumpa news berjujuk sampailah FOMC statement..

Update 8.00 PM

4Hr Trend: Still Up.. No sign of Turning Down...
Momentum .. Suggest New High before 12MN..

My current Position Still Intact.. Aim for 200 Pips TP..

Update 10.30 PM

US News Positive --- Menjadi Bad for Dollars..
Decide to Exit The Long Trade with positive pips (Just take what the market give)...
Nampak macam Descending Triangle mungkin mencari --- Round Tujuh..

Harap akan nampak petunjuk yang lebih terang jam 12.00 MN..

Reminder:

"Never assume that a trend has ended until there are clear sign that the opposite trend has started"

By Owner Of Caripips Blog.

Descending Triangle In UpTrend

2009-06-24T07:20:00.007+08:00

Above: Chart Update (6.00 AM - Malaysia).. Triangle Getting Small.. We will see the direction soon

Above:
Chart Update (8.20 PM - Malaysia).. Price still within the Descending Triangle..

4Hr Descending Triangle.
Bear Masih Incharge - Better wait for further confirmation.

Story Disebalik Descending Triangle:-

Round One: The Bull are providing a good support; then bears are unable to break through that support.

Round Two: The Bear come up with a strategy - we let the bulls have their support but we must push the close LOWER.

Round Three: The Bull protect the support; bears proceed with their strategy...

Round Four: Bears push the Close Lower

Round Five: The Bears try to break the support again - bull still protect the support. So the price goes up again

Wait for round SIX & SEVEN

Round SIX: Bears Push the Close Lower.. Push near Bull support.. Lower than round four.

Then Round SEVEN: The undefeated BULLS having seen the close so low and near the support - they loose their morale completely - its just a matter of time for bears to come and conquer them..

Descending triangle formed.. and ..

23 June 2009; Permulaan Big Downtrend??

2009-06-23T08:28:00.011+08:00

23 June 2009 @ 8.30 AM (Malaysia)

Fun- The-Mental

Today Red News ; Existing Home Sales - US Dollar Positive News @ 10.00 PM

So today we can trade using Technical until that news..

4Hr Trend : Established Bear sejak 12.00 MN semalam..
So mulai sekarang kita hanya akan SELL until Proven otherwise..

Daily momentum Strong Pointing Down.. Adakah Head & Shoulder Pattern akan dipecahkan pada hari nie..

Current Scalp Position Still Intact: Free Ride..
Looking for Good Place to enter Swing Trade.

Update 12.00 Noon

Price berjaya tembus previous day Low as expected; latest 4hr & 1Hr momentum FLAT. Price dah shoot 200 pips down after 1hr & 4Hr lined up in same direction. Nice 150 pips in profit for swing trade.. Now need to wait for Good Retracement; so that the price may shoot another 200 pips down if this 1Hr & 4Hr lined up again - Then enter another swing trade.

Scalp Trade (Adjust stop to BE) - Will only close the trade if TREND change. Hope it will hit TP soon.

4Hr Trend - Masih Down.. InTraDay Chart sedang buat Retracement.. So tungguuu..

Update 5.00 PM

4Hr Trend - Masih Down; Will follow this trend sampai END

Update 9.00 Mlm

Lagi sejam akan ada News untuk USD - Dollar Positive.
4hr Trend - Masih Bear.. Price naik sekarang aku assume cuma Retracement..
Resistance di 157.1xx - 157.3xx
Wait N See..

Sekarang menunggu Next Breakout..

Reminder:
"Always assume the underlying trend to continue unless proven otherwise"

by Owner of Caripips Blog

Daily TF - Possible End of Daily Up Trend

2009-06-22T10:07:00.005+08:00

22 June 2009 - Daily GJ Opinion

2009-06-22T09:38:00.006+08:00

22 June 2009 @ 9.40 AM - Malaysia

Red Fun - Mental News

- No significant Red News today for GBP, JPY & USD

We will use purely technical to trade today..

Big Picture Reminder

Monthly -
Trend Down; Current Action: Retracement
Weekly -
Trend Down; Current Action; Retracement (Last week Bar - Hanging Man)..
Daily -
Price Action Trend ??? Uncertain (only can decide after completed today's bar) ; But Indicator suggest - DownTrend

4Hr Trend : Up... Retracement In Progress

My Action up to 4.00 PM: I will take BUY trade; unless 4Hr trend change to DOWN..

No swing trade as market currently suggest RANGING.
No Scalp trade (only take scalp trade from 11.00 Am to 11.00 Pm).

Update : 12.00 Noon

4Hr Trend.. Masih Up; so i will assume currently price in retracement mode until i see trend change (if happen) @ 4.00 Pm..
No swing trade as market still I consider ranging.
No scalp trade

Update: 4.30 PM

4Hr Trend.. Possible Bearish Turning (Not Confirmed) until i see new price bar @ 8.00 PM.
No Swing Trade @ Moment - until I see Clear Trend Direction

Enter Scalp Trade Short - Wait for Hit TP or SL.

Update: 8.25 PM

Market Still Ranging... Bias kepada Bear but need to Wait for further confirmation. I need to see Next 4hr candle to complete to see clear direction.

Scalp Trade: Free Ride (If hit SL on 2nd Post = Breakeven).

Reminder:
Never assume that a trend has ended until there are clear sign that the opposite trend has started

By Owner of Caripips Blog

The Comfort Zone Start "With Right Time Frame".

2009-06-20T12:53:00.003+08:00

Article Nie DiÇedok'di ForexFactory

Time FRAMES

Time frames are probably more important than most people give them credit for.

1. First, it is the time frame that determines our “comfort zone” in trading.
2. Second, it is our “workspace” that we base all our trading decisions off.

Many new traders don’t understand the “higher order” of time frames and forever suffer frustration not knowing why. Each time frame is governed or “controlled” by the next higher time frame. Since we trade the Daily, which is our workspace, we will start there.

The Daily is governed or controlled by the Weekly, which I call the BOSS. As long as we only trade from the Daily, then these two are all we really need. We can look at the Monthly for a longer, further out view, but as regards our trading decisions on the Daily, since the Monthly is two time frames higher (and controls the Weekly), we can disregard this.

Each time frame consists of waves or cycles or whatever name you want to give them and WITHIN those waves or cycles are smaller waves or cycles – these are our smaller time frames. So when you look at a BOSS chart you can see the large, major swings. Within those large, major swings are smaller swings – these are our Daily swings. From this, you should now understand that the BOSS controls EVERYTHING the Daily does. (Within the Daily swings are smaller swings which are your H4 swings).

This means that a BOSS swing controls several Daily swings.

If you have understood everything so far, you should realise that the BOSS support and resistance levels are those which the Daily moves up and down against. These then are MY major support and resistance levels. I qualify it as “MY” because they may not be the same as another trader’s major levels.

A BOSS bar consists of 5 Daily bars if the penny has still not dropped.

Hopefully this will help you understand why you cannot use information from a lower time frame to trade the higher time frame. For example, you cannot use support and resistance levels from H4 to trade the Daily since there are 6 H4 bars in a Daily and as many swings meaning that eventually you will be stopped out mid – bar.

It is OK to find an entry on a lower time frame AFTER first identifying the opportunity on the Daily, PROVIDING you go back to trading the Daily.

If you want to find really strong, powerful levels of resistance and support, then pull up a Monthly chart and where the Monthly levels coincide with the Weekly levels is where you will find super powerful major, major support and resistance. If you do this, do not draw other lines in as you will end up with more horizontal lines than price bars!

The higher order of time frames also tells us that the higher the time frame, the more reliable, accurate are price action and technical analysis. So, a hammer on a BOSS chart is very meaningful and if you look back on your charts, you will see that many huge moves have come off these bars.

The higher time frames are easier to trade because there is less “noise” and trends are longer BUT you need very large accounts to handle the Stop Loss levels.

The one area which is not black and white (to me) is during a trend change. I struggle all the time with inter – time frame trend changes as I sometimes think the Daily has to change before it’s BOSS does. However, when I look in detail, it can be seen that the BOSS has changed first. The trick is to know what the immediate trend is or the momentum of the last couple of bars.

There is much more to time frames than this but this should be sufficient to help you along your way.

Rock n Roll,

Strat (Source: Click Here)

19 June 2009 - GJ Daily Opinion

2009-06-19T08:58:00.007+08:00

Gj Opinion 19 June 2009 @ 9.00 AM (Malaysia). Updated: Jam 11.30 Mlm

Apa news hari ini?

No significant RED News - So trade pure on Technical.

My Current Big Trend Based On Price (4 Own Reminder)

Monthly -
Trend (Down); Sekarang dalam Process Retracement - Sampai mana retracement akan stop???

Weekly -
Trend (Down); Sekarang dalam Process Retracement - Sampai mana retracement akan stop??

Daily -
Trend (Up); Sekarang dalam Process Retracement - Sampai mana retracement akan stop??

My Current Daily Trend Based On Indicator:

Trend (down); Sekarang dalam Retracement & next resistance at Daily @ 160.xx...

Technical.

Symmetrical Triangle di 1Hr & 15M - Chart menunjukkan price RETEST sekali lagi Trendline (SBR); aku tak ambil trade tu sebab TREND yang aku trade sudah berubah.

4Hr trend; pagi nie bertukar menjadi UPTrend (Dah establsihed).

So direction untuk aku TRADE sekarang ialah BUY...

1Hr price stuck below 1oo SMA; jika price breaks level nie; aku menjangkakan 200 pips keatas hari nie..

So.. aku hanya akan LONG at Support selagi 4Hr Trend UP..

Update Jam 4.00 PM:

4Hr Trend : Up; 1Hr Dah ikut halatuju 4Hr Trend..
Price dah berada atas 100SMA 1Hr..
Slow ride keatas sebab daily momentum tak support..
Mungkin akan dapat 200 pips..

Update 11.30 MLM:

Price naik selepas breaks 100 SMA
4Hr Trend - Up.. 1Hr Sedang Retrace - Stuck di 158.5xxx; kalau tembus (Market akan ranging)

Sebab dah friday - Minggu depan pulak baru cari post BARU.

Note: Mlm nie mungkin tiada update; sebab penduduk sini buat Function; terlibat sama untuk mengurus..

Reminder: Never Assume That A Current Trend Ended Until There are Clear Sign That The Opposite Trend Has Started...

By Owner of Caripips Blog.

Symmetrical Triangle - Revisit.

2009-06-18T19:18:00.003+08:00

M Shape untuk Bearish
W shape untuk Bullish

2nd Retest Confirmed the power of SBR Line

18 June 2009 - GJ outlook for Today

2009-06-18T09:56:00.013+08:00

18 June 2009: 9.30 AM (Malaysia)

Cerita GJ hari nie bermula dengan Symmetical Triangle semalam; best view kat 15M TF atau 1Hr TF; nampaknya price action selepas patterns ni menyebabkan GJ terjun kebawah. Hari nie; dia retest kat previous TRENDLINE; adakah ini Good Bye Kiss sebelum price terjun semula. Chart untuk Rujukan

Sekarang aku ada dua post untuk short; stop loss & TP dah disetkan. So let the market decide. MM within emotional level. MM masih ada ruang untuk masuk trade jika peluang.

Apa Red News hari nie?

Pagi tadi; aku tak tahu apa yang Mr King cakapkan; apapun; reaction ialah RETRACEMENT.
4.30 PM - Retail Sales (GBP Negative News).
8.30 PM - U .Claims (US Dollar Positive News).

So kita ada satu News bad for GBP & satu News good for US Dollar.

Technical:

4Hr Trend; Masih Downtrend.
Price Bounce (Bullish Engulfing) more than 200 pips up after Reject 120 SMA @ 4Hr.
Sedang menanti masa sesuai untuk Swing Trade.
Perlu hourly monitor

So tungguuu samada ada peluang untuk swing short ker tak hari nie.

So favor aku SHORT sampai 4Hr trend change; buat masa sekarang BEAR

Update 12.00 Noon:

4Hr Trend Established Bear.
1Hr masih Bull - Ini yang menahan price dari pecut kebawah

Hourly monitor untuk Swing Trade

Update: 5.00 PM (Tak dapat assess internet sejam jam 3.30 PM - Siut betul).

4Hr Trend; masih down...

GBP News Negative - Result Negative for GBP.
Dah termissed good Scalp Trade (mungkin takde rezeki)

Action: Menunggu Swing Trade atau Scalp Trade; jika ada retracement mungkin akan ada malam nie. Direction; SELL until proven otherwise. Harap internet tak down lagi lepas nie.

8.40 MLM.. Update

USD News - Positive for Dollar
4Hr Trend - Masih Bear
So far; after missed the boat no good entry point yet.

Reminder:

Never Assume That A Current Trend Ended Until There are Clear Sign That The Opposite Trend Has Started...

Why we focus only on TECHNICAL for ENTRY?

According to George Soros - In forex for a currency to move up or down... due to 3 factors..

1.Inside Factor
2.Outside Factor
3.Completely Unknown Factor

Why?

Inside factor = Direct reason for a move(eg:UK or Japan IR)
Outside Factor= Indirect (eg:US ecnomy is effecting JPY)
Unknown= complete Mystry (know one knows why it moves in a particular direction)

This is why I always rely on a technical strategy rather than a fundamental strategy.

By Owner of Caripips Blog

Symmetrical Triangle - Chart Patterns

2009-06-17T16:42:00.005+08:00

Update Chart: Nama Patterns Symmetrical Triangle. Buyer & Seller; Tug of War to win. Look at number (1), (2), (3), (4) & (5). Most of the time; price will breaks at number (5). The best place for stop loss is at (4). For TP, Normally range in between (1) & (2) is the target from breakouts level.

Two Classical Symmetrical Triangle (Bullish & Bearish)

Symmetrical Triangle Chart Patterns. How to trade this chart patterns?

Look at above chart. We see potential 400 pips down if price successfully breaks lower trendline. I will update the chart and how to trade this type of chart later (Update of Chart Suggest Successful Breakout of Symmetrical Patterns).

17 June 2009 - Daily GJ Opinion

2009-06-17T09:00:00.012+08:00

Semalam ada masuk satu post SHORT sebelum jam 11.00 Mlm. Tak sempat update kat sini. Satu post hit TP; satu lagi sedang FREE RIDE.

Apa Red News Hari Ini?

4.30 PM - GBP News
8.30 PM - Core CPI (USD Negative).
9.00 PM - Uncle Ben speaks.

Apa kata Technical?

4Hr Trend - Masih Bear; Aku dapat masuk Swing Trade @ 1Hr 5SMA masa Jepun Session
(Rupa-rupanya Price bukan Retrace setakat 1Hr5SMA ajer; tapi dia retrace sampai 4Hr 5SMA -Aku pulak tak jangka yang retracement akan sampai 4Hr 5SMA). Ini boleh berlaku bila Volume Kurang...

So tungguuu jer samada trade nie akan HIT SL or TP. Position size within emotional level.

Dari segi MM; masih ada ruang untuk SCALP jika ada Rezki nanti.
So untuk Scalp: Akan cari position pada jam 11.00 keatas.

Price Direction: Bear Until Proven Otherwise

Update: Jam 12.00 Noon

Swing Trade Hit Stop Loss.
Sekarang GJ Ranging.
Sehingga jam 4.00 PM - 4Hr Bear Masih Intact;
Bullish Engulfing kat 4Hr suggest BULL lawan BEAR semula.
No Scalp Trade buat masa nie.

Current Status: No open position for GJ; Tunggu jam 4.00 untuk lihat current trend status

Update: 4.00 PM

Retracement keatas nampak macam dah complete. Lastest 4Hr Trend; Masih suggest BEAR.
News sekejap lagi; jalan selamat nak masuk trade ialah South..

Lepas News 4.30 mesti nampak Jalan dengan lebih Terang

Masih menanti i) New Swing Trade ii) Scalp Trade

Update Jam 4.45 PM: Masuk SCALP SHORT. SL & TP dah disetkan.
Look at 1Hr - Bearish Symmetrical Triangle Patterns.. belum ada valid Breaks lagi untuk trade. Best kalau masuk masa dia pullback selepas breaks.

GBP News; MPC Neutral for GBP - Result pun Neutral.

Impact mungkin mlm nie bila Uncle Ben speaks.

Update 8.40 PM:

US Dollar Negative Red News - Result as expected.
Persoalan sekarang; apakah ucapan dari Uncle Ben

Secara Technical: Bear masih incharge; so jangan lawan TREND.
Symmetrical Chart Patterns - Boleh junam 300-400 pips.

My SHORT TRADE - Masih Selamat.

So that's all for today. Esok jumpa lagi.

Reminder:

Never assume that a trend has ended until there are clear sign that the opposite trend has started.

By Owner Of Caripips Blog.

16 June 2009 @ 10.00 AM - Malaysia (GJ OutLook)

2009-06-16T09:56:00.012+08:00

Seperti yang saya agak semalam; Gj telah mencecah 157.xx. Hari nie;

Japan News - Mungkin tak bagi banyak impact; sebab saya rasa mereka akan kekalkan RATE.
(Update: Price menjunam selepas BOJ Press Conference )

Jam 4.30 PM; Ada GBP Negative News.
Jam 8.30 MLM; Ada PPI USD Positive News.

Technical:

4Hr Trend masih BEAR; My swing trade semalam dah Hit TP - Alhamdullillah.
Waiting for Next Opprtunity Untuk Swing Trade.

Semalam saya tak masuk any SCALP. Nampaknya hari nie berkemungkinan akan ada SCALP opportunity. I'll start looking for Scalp selepas jam 11.00 Pagi sehingga jam 11.00 mlm shj. So sekarang small TF tunjukkan price sedang RETRACE.

Nota: Sekarang BEAR INCHARGE - Masa untuk looking for SELL opportunity aja UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE

Update: Jam 12.00 Noon

4Hr Trend Bear; Looking for opportunity untuk Swing Trade & Scalp.
Looking For SELL opportunity.
Strong Support @ 155.3xx

Update: Jam 4.00 PM

4Hr Trend Masih Bear; Price retrace cantik kat small TF; Masih sabar menunggu best opportunity untuk open SELL..

Scalp Pun Sama; Menunggu opportunity untuk SELL.

News lagi 30Minit.. GBP Negative; Kalau nak scalp pun lepas tu KOT.

Update 4.45 PM : Red GBP Negative News bertukar menjadi GBP Positive News;
Price Reaction: Pound Melonjak Naik.. Namun;

Harus diIngat; 4Hr Trend Masih Bear - Reaction ini sekarang aku ASSUME RETRACEMENT until PROVEN OTHERWISE - So aku masih menanti Opportunity Untuk SELL.

Update 8.00 Mlm:

Red News - Dollar Positive lagi 30M; 4Hr Chart bertentang dengan 1Hr - So market Ranging Sekarang nie.. Rasanya takkan ada swing trade sehingga MidNite.

Scalp - tak nampak ruang lagi

Update 8.45 PM - Red News for Dollar Positive Jadi Negative; Apa response market??

Update 9.15 PM - Tak nampak great opportunity; so better tidur; see again tomorrow.

Daily Reminder:

Never assume that a trend has ended until there are clear sign that the opposite trend has started

by Owner of Caripips Blog.

15 June 2009 - GJ Analysis

2009-06-15T11:02:00.006+08:00

FA - Cuma ada TIC LONG TERM PURCHASE; Dollar Positive RED News jam 9.00 mlm.
Basically; boleh trade Guna Technical b4 that.

My 4Hr Chart - Sedang melakukan pertukaran TREND. Kena tunggu confirmation jam 12.00. Mungkin Bear akan control selepas jam 12.00 nanti.

Buat masa sekarang takder position yang aku masuk. Tunggu good opportunity ajer; Buy atau Sell akan aku decide jam 12.00 nanti.

Update: Jam 12.00

My chart belum DECIDE clear DIRECTION - Walaupun bias mungkin lebih kepada BEAR ke 157.xx, namun untuk swing, aku kena tunggu sampai jam 4.00 untuk tentukan direction.. Tak nak main teka jer.So tungguuu. Nak scalp jer kot buat masa nie.

Update: Jam 4.00 PM

4Hr Trend dah confirmed BEAR... Aku masuk trade kat 4Hr 5SMA... Wait for the outcome; LOSS or Hit Stop Loss;

Swing Trade On..
Scalp - Belum ada sebarang post

Update: Jam 9.00 MLM

Red News Keluar - Negative for Dollar.

Short Swing Trade Masih - On; Belum kena Stop Loss - Market Dah Ranging Sekarang nie..
Nampaknya hari nie; No Scalp Trade

9.30 MLM

Time untuk tidur.. Let the market decide dengan Swing Position; Dah masuk trade according to Rule; Position Size within Acceptable Emotional Level... See Again Tomorrow.

By Owner Of Caripips Blog

How to identify trend in Forex? - Revisit

2009-06-13T20:49:00.002+08:00

We always hear the cliche 'the trend is your friend'. The statement is true, however the method to identifying a trend can be deceptively tricky. Technical analyst come up with many ways to identify the trend. Some look at the slope of MA, some look at technical indicators such as MACD that have been specifically created to identify trend. However, you can actually look directly at price action to identify the trend.

You rarely seen your trading pairs move straight up or down. They normally move up and down in a stair-step fashion.

When a pairs moves up and start to retrace and move back down, it creates new high - peaks.
When a pairs moves down and start to turn around and move back up, it create a new low - valley.

So basically, by using our eyes then we can determine the trend by looking at highs (peaks) and Lows (Valley).

Identify the Up Trend - When the price making a series of Higher High and Higher Lows.

Identify the Down Trend - When the price making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows.

Identify the SideWays - When the price is making Neither a series of higher or lower highs nor the series of higher or lower lows.

Understand Bar Chart - Revisit the basic

2009-06-13T09:44:00.003+08:00

Classical OHLC Bar contain; High, Open, Close & Low.

Next question is how to identify the direction of BAR trend?

We identify trend in accordance to Dow Theory.
An Up Trend is a Series of bars with Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
A Down Trend is a Series of bars with Lower Highs and Lower Lows.

Next question is When does a Trend Start and End?

An Up - Trend Started by a Bar with a Higher High and Lower Low than the previous Bar.
Conversely, a Down Trend is started by A Bar with A Lower High and Lower Low than the previous Bar.

Then next question, When is a TREND UNCERTAIN?

The trend is Not Clear if we see sign of Uncertainty among Buyers and Sellers.
Inside Days.. Outside Days & Borderline Days are sign of Uncertainty in TREND.

Inside Day = Lower High and Higher Low when compared to preceding BAR.
Outside Day = Have both a Higher High and a Lower Low than the previous BAR.
Borderlines day = Are similar to Inside Day and Outside Day; except that there is an equal High or Low.

Plan Ur Trade & Trade Ur Plan

2009-06-10T21:27:00.002+08:00

Idea by Scrat (ForexFactory)

Main Plan: Always accept the loss at your emotional tolerance level.

Strategy: Always adjust and reduce dollar per pips to a level that you feel comfortable with, when you lose.

Standard Risk Management:

Identify the Risk (Losing) of level.
Learn to forget about how much you will win.
Instead, we only focus on the level we willing to accept the lose

Classical Scenario.

You see and recognize the potential trade on GJ Pair, so you want to make a trade, but before we open the trade,

Step One - Identify the risk

Where does my stop loss go?
How much i will lose?
If the trade goes against me? Do i ACCEPT the Risk of Losing?

If YES, proceed to next step.
If NO - Adjust the dollar per pips until you ACCEPT the RISK or DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE.

This is critical and very important, you have very honest with yourself here. You must be able to say to yourself, THIS IS THE RISK I AM PREPARED TO TAKE ON THIS TRADE AND I WILL UNCONDITIONALLY ACCEPT THAT IT MAY BE A 100% LOSS.

If you cannot do this then YOU DO NOT TRADE.

Step Two - After we ACCEPT THE STEP ONE

Where do i take profits? For example, we may put on 2 contract and take profits on first contract at in increments of 100 pips. We may trail the second contract until wee see significant GJ reversal bar.

THIS IS OUR PLAN... Now, we want to focus on TRADE UR PLAN.

Step Three

Do i believe in my plan?
Do i have 100% absolute faith in my plan?

If the answer to this is NO - Make a NEW PLAN.
Do not TRADE until you UNCONDITIONALLY ACCEPT YOUR PLAN.

Step Four

Trade Management - If you are trading the DAILY TF, so no need to check your charts UNTIL AT THE START OF NEW CANDLE.

If you have been HONEST with yourself and ACCEPTED YOUR PLAN then there is NOTHING TO DO until

You will either be stopped out FOR LOSS which you have already ACCEPTED and are no longer concern for you, or
You get PROFITS

There are NOTHING ELSE FOR YOU TO DO

You must learn to BELIEVE I YOUR PLAN, so always PLAN THE TRADE & TRADE THE PLAN.

Bull?? Versus Bear?? My Current Position

2009-06-10T08:08:00.004+08:00

Daily Candle closed dengan Hanging Man.. So how to trade Hanging Man? In theory, the Uptrend HangingMan would requires the next day to be a selling day to confirm a reversal. In theory, we should wait another day for confirmation of BEAR.

However, at the moment, 4Hr trend masih Bull. So i should always assume the current BULL trend will continue until this 4Hr trend change. So aku masih simpan Bull position with stop loss at BreakEven.

Fundamental Views By NR

2009-06-10T05:51:00.003+08:00

New York – Recent data suggest that the rate of contraction in the world economy may be slowing. But hopes that “green shoots” of recovery may be springing up have been dashed by plenty of yellow weeds. Recent data on employment, retail sales, industrial production, and housing in the United States remain very weak; Europe’s first quarter GDP growth data is dismal; Japan’s economy is still comatose; and even China – which is recovering – has very weak exports. Thus, the consensus view that the global economy will soon bottom out has proven – once again – to be overly optimistic.

After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the global financial system nearly melted down and the world economy went into free fall. Indeed, the rate of economic contraction in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 reached near-depression levels... read complete article

Word Of Wisdom by Elder Alexander

2009-06-09T22:39:00.002+08:00

Winners have the discipline to take what is offer and use it to succeed. Wining take discipline, discipline come from confidence and the only system in which you can have confidence is the one you have tested on your own and adapted to your own style... by Elder

All Time Reminder For Trader

2009-06-09T17:08:00.002+08:00

1. "Always Assume The Underlying Trend To Continue Unless Proven Otherwise.."

2. " The Chartist knows that there are reasons why markets go up or go down, he or she just doesn't believe that knowing what those reasons are necessary in the forecasting process" John J. Murphy

3. " Most people are trading for the adrenaline rush rather than the boring concept of just maximizing profits"...

4. " Winners have the discipline to take what is offer and use it to succeed. Wining take discipline, discipline come from confidence and the only system in which you can have confidence is the one you have tested on your own and adapted to your own style..."

5. "Stay focused on what you need to learn, do the work that is necessary, and your belief in what is possible will naturally expand as a function of your willingness to adapt" ... Mark Douglas, "The Disciplined Trader"

6. "Technical Indicators help identify trends etc.. & its approach is more objective as compare to using a chart patterns. However, you must be careful, not fiddle with indicators until they tell you what you want to see especially if you adjust the indicators setting.. "

Cerita GJ semalam

2009-06-03T11:13:00.001+08:00

Pound Yen Updated...

2009-06-02T15:12:00.002+08:00

Sekarang, 3.00 PM waktu malaysia; Walaupun 4Hr Trend Bullish; price sedang retrace; masih menanti good price untuk BUY, jika 4hr remained bullish

Adakah price akan cecah 155.7xx today sebab daily suggest retracement?

Trade What You See - Don't trust the rumour

2009-06-02T07:11:00.002+08:00

Cerita GJ hari Nie?

2009-06-02T07:00:00.002+08:00

Reds New Untuk 2 June; 10.00 PM - USD Negative

Pending Home Sales m/m F (0.4%) P (3.2%).

Basically; trade hari nie boleh bergantung 100% pada technical.

4Hr Trend; Bullish; So aku menunggu best price untuk Enter Buy Semula hari nie